Update shared on18 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 5.33%LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton's fair value estimate has been raised from €558.30 to €588.07, as analysts cite a tempered but resilient outlook for luxury demand and improved sector recovery prospects.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts have issued a range of opinions on LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton Société Européenne, providing nuanced perspectives on the company's outlook, valuation, and growth trajectory. The commentary reflects both optimism about the company's position and cautiousness regarding sector trends.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have upgraded ratings and raised price targets, underscoring optimism around LVMH's recovery prospects and its positioning within the luxury sector.
- There is consensus that the early stages of a sector recovery are underway, with potential for further gains if economic conditions improve, particularly in key markets such as China.
- Strong Q3 organic sales growth and geographical improvements highlight LVMH’s resilience and the enduring appeal of its renowned luxury brands.
- Some expect the company’s strategic hires and creative leadership transitions across major brands to support sustainable growth and innovation over the coming years.
- Bearish analysts caution that the extended period of rapid luxury sector growth has ended, predicting significantly lower annualized growth rates compared to historical trends.
- Recent downward price target revisions and rating downgrades reflect concerns about demand normalization and execution risks amid global headwinds.
- Some believe the sector faces a multi-year consolidation period, with overall demand for luxury goods now estimated to grow at 2 to 3 percent annually, well below prior decades.
- Near-term disruptions and signs of slowing momentum in certain regions contribute to a more reserved outlook, prompting neutral or hold recommendations from several firms.
What's in the News
- LVMH is in advanced discussions to sell its Marc Jacobs fashion brand, with possible buyers including Authentic Brands Group, Bluestar Alliance, and WHP Global. The deal could be valued around $1 billion (Wall Street Journal).
- The Marc Jacobs sale talks are part of LVMH’s broader effort to streamline its brand portfolio. The company recently sold Off-White to Bluestar Alliance (Wall Street Journal, Reuters).
- Industry speculation suggests LVMH may be preparing to pursue an acquisition of Giorgio Armani. TD Cowen analysts estimate a potential transaction value between $5 billion and $7 billion. Armani’s independence and brand heritage are cited as notable factors (TD Cowen).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has increased from €558.30 to €588.07, reflecting a modest upward revision.
- Discount Rate has decreased slightly from 8.22% to 8.15%, which indicates a marginally lower perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth projection has fallen from 3.74% to 3.33%, signaling tempered expectations for future expansion.
- Net Profit Margin expectation has decreased from 17.72% to 17.12%, which points to slightly lower anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E Ratio has risen from 21.17x to 23.30x, suggesting a higher valuation relative to projected earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.