Update shared on 10 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.20%Analysts have slightly raised their fair value estimate for Thales from €279.13 to €279.69. This reflects ongoing strength in Defense and Aerospace, though some concerns remain over Cyber margin pressures.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst sentiment on Thales is mixed, with a number of recent target hikes reflecting optimism in core divisions. However, certain concerns persist on execution and valuation.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight Thales’s robust organic sales growth and note the company is on track to meet or surpass its five-year target of 5% to 7%.
- Consistent strength in Defense and Aerospace divisions supports the margin outlook and is driving repeated price target increases from multiple firms.
- Recent quarters have generally been solid, with performance in key areas such as Aerospace viewed as positive for future earnings momentum and margin improvement.
- Some analysts see further upside to Defense revenue guidance, supported by demand and execution in the sector.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious regarding margin pressures in the Cyber division, with concerns that these could offset gains made in Defense and Aerospace.
- High valuation is cited as a risk, especially given the significant recent rise in the European defense sector overall.
- Some believe that while sector fundamentals are constructive, Thales's current market pricing may call for a more selective and cautious approach.
- There is concern that Cyber-related headwinds could impact group margins and limit further upside in the short term.
What's in the News
- Airbus, Thales, and Leonardo signed a Memorandum of Understanding to combine their space activities into a new European company. The aim is to boost strategic autonomy and innovation in space infrastructure and services (Key Developments).
- AT&T and Thales launched a global eSIM solution for IoT devices, streamlining activation, connectivity management, and remote operations for enterprises across key industries (Key Developments).
- Thales S.A. confirmed its earnings guidance for 2025, expecting organic sales growth between 6% and 7%, with sales projected in the range of €21.8 to €22.0 billion (Key Developments).
- Thales decided to distribute an interim ordinary cash dividend of €0.95 per share for the 2025 financial year. The payment is scheduled for December 4, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, from €279.13 to €279.69.
- The Discount Rate has decreased modestly, moving from 7.29% to 7.12%.
- The Revenue Growth forecast has edged down, from 7.67% to 7.58%.
- The Net Profit Margin projection has increased marginally, from 8.07% to 8.10%.
- The Future P/E ratio estimate has fallen fractionally, from 32.84x to 32.75x.
Disclaimer
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