Analysts have raised their price target for Alstom from €23.06 to €23.59, citing slightly stronger revenue growth expectations and adjustments to profitability outlooks.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research coverage highlights a mix of optimistic signals and ongoing caution among analysts regarding Alstom's outlook.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have increased their price targets. This reflects greater confidence in Alstom's future revenue growth and profit margins.
- Some major institutions such as JPMorgan have reiterated supportive ratings, indicating strong belief in the company's ability to deliver above-market returns.
- The consensus continues to point to robust demand within Alstom's core markets. This suggests ongoing operational momentum and successful execution of its growth strategy.
- Rising targets suggest expectations of improved cash flow generation and potential for higher shareholder value over time.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious. They are keeping more neutral ratings and only modestly increasing their targets as concerns persist over earnings consistency.
- Lingering uncertainty about Alstom's pace of margin improvement could limit upside if operational challenges persist.
- The valuation uplift is seen as somewhat restrained due to perceived risks around integration milestones and supply chain pressures.
- Some observers note that while price targets are rising, a portion of the analyst community still waits for clearer signs of sustained, broad-based profitability improvement.
What's in the News
- Alstom revised its fiscal year 2025/26 earnings guidance by upgrading the organic sales outlook to above 5%, an increase from the previous 3-5% range (Corporate Guidance Raised).
- Signed a landmark agreement with PKP Intercity, Poland's national rail operator, to deliver 42 Coradia Max double-deck electric multiple units and provide 30 years of full-service maintenance, with an option for 30 more trains. The contract is valued at approximately EUR 1.6 billion (Client Announcements).
- The SNCF Voyageurs Board approved an order for 30 new-generation Avelia Horizon very high-speed trains, worth close to EUR 1.4 billion, with options for up to 20 additional trains. These trains will serve five European countries under the Eurostar banner (Client Announcements).
- Martin Sion has been appointed as Alstom’s next Chief Executive Officer, effective April 2026, succeeding Henri Poupart-Lafarge who will serve until the transition (Executive Changes CEO).
- Received a EUR 475 million order from an undisclosed European customer for rolling stock, to be booked in Q2 2025/26 (Client Announcements).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from €23.06 to €23.59, reflecting an improved valuation baseline.
- Discount Rate has increased from 8.29% to 8.61%, indicating a marginally higher perceived risk or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth expectation has moved higher, from 3.65% to 4.31%, signaling stronger anticipated top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin projection has edged down from 4.37% to 4.15%, suggesting a slightly less optimistic profitability outlook.
- Future P/E ratio forecast has risen from 15.0x to 15.8x, highlighting a modestly higher valuation multiple for future earnings.
Disclaimer
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