Update shared on30 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.56%Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for UPM-Kymmene Oyj to €26.99, citing reduced near-term pulp price expectations and persistent demand uncertainty, while maintaining a generally positive long-term outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts note a downgrade in near-term pulp price expectations, which impacts earnings outlook across the paper and packaging sector.
- Cautious revisions to price targets reflect diminished conviction in a material rebound in pulp prices, particularly relevant given recent market trends.
- Ongoing adjustments are made in conjunction with sector-wide earnings previews, highlighting persistent uncertainty over demand recovery for paper and packaging products.
- Despite target cuts, most analysts retain positive or overweight ratings, citing a favorable longer-term positioning for UPM-Kymmene within the industry.
- Upgrades to a Buy rating by some analysts indicate valuation appeal and confidence in UPM-Kymmene’s structural growth opportunities despite short-term headwinds.
What's in the News
- Completed €159.6 million share repurchase program for 6,000,000 shares (1.13% of shares outstanding).
- Issued H2 2025 EBIT guidance of €425–650 million, lower than H2 2024 (€709 million).
- Actively pursuing inorganic and organic growth opportunities amid uncertain markets.
- Advanced stream water and biodiversity programs, reaching 287 km restored by mid-2025; ongoing dam removal and monitoring projects, including new eDNA initiatives.
- Expanded its forestry water protection partnership with BSAG, introducing new sustainability guidelines and research collaborations.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for UPM-Kymmene Oyj
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from €27.42 to €26.99.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for UPM-Kymmene Oyj has fallen slightly from 3.1% per annum to 3.0% per annum.
- The Future P/E for UPM-Kymmene Oyj remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 13.53x to 13.39x.
Disclaimer
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