Update shared on 27 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.27%The analyst price target for UPM-Kymmene Oyj has been revised slightly lower from EUR 26.25 to EUR 25.91, as analysts cite the absence of a strong catalyst in the absence of a sustained pulp price recovery and recent downward adjustments across the Street.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research on UPM-Kymmene Oyj reflects a mixed outlook, with both optimism and caution among analysts. The following commentary summarizes the prevailing sentiment and key factors driving analyst perspectives.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts maintain Buy or Overweight ratings, indicating confidence in UPM-Kymmene's long-term growth trajectory.
- Some price targets, while lowered, remain above the current market price. This points to potential for upside if market or industry conditions improve.
- Price targets in the mid-to-high EUR 20s are based on the belief in the company's ability to perform through challenging market cycles.
- Recent upward adjustments by certain firms show optimism regarding strategic initiatives and improved operational efficiency.
- Bearish analysts have downgraded their ratings or reduced price targets due to the lack of a significant catalyst in the near term.
- There is a consensus that a sustained recovery in pulp prices would be important for meaningful share price appreciation.
- Some have expressed concern that downward revisions across the sector point to continued headwinds for valuation and earnings growth.
- Caution remains around execution risks as well as the pace at which UPM-Kymmene can adapt to evolving market conditions.
What's in the News
- UPM launches WISA-LNG Spruce plywood for liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers, expanding its product line with a more sustainable and high-performing material. The product is produced at three Finnish mills to increase delivery capacity (Key Developments).
- UPM Energy's new six-megawatt ultracapacitor is operational at the Kuusankoski hydropower plant, tripling the company’s storage capacity and strengthening grid balancing with emission-free power (Key Developments).
- UPM Adhesive Materials unveils a Premium Performance label material portfolio for wine and spirits packaging, collaborating internationally to highlight innovation and premiumization (Key Developments).
- The company completed a share buyback program, repurchasing 6 million shares (1.13%) for €159.6 million under a plan announced in February 2025 (Key Developments).
- UPM provides earnings guidance for H2 2025, projecting lower sales margins for pulp and higher maintenance costs compared to H2 2024, but improved performance in advanced materials businesses (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly from €26.25 to €25.91, in line with adjustments to analyst projections.
- Discount Rate has risen marginally from 7.72% to 7.78%. This reflects minor changes in the company's perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has edged lower, moving from 2.64% to 2.63% year-over-year.
- Net Profit Margin is expected to improve, increasing from 11.76% to 11.87%.
- Future P/E Ratio has declined subtly from 13.16x to 12.91x. This suggests modestly lower valuation expectations on forward earnings.
Disclaimer
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