Update shared on 14 Dec 2025
Analysts have slightly raised their price target on Metsä Board Oyj to €3.00 from €3.00, reflecting marginal tweaks to the discount rate and valuation assumptions, while maintaining broadly unchanged expectations for revenue growth, profit margins and future earnings multiples.
What's in the News
- Launch of a roughly EUR 200 million cost savings and profitability improvement programme, including concluded change negotiations in Finland resulting in 150 position reductions and planned temporary layoffs at several mills in 2026 to align with weak paperboard demand (company announcement).
- Approximately EUR 12 million in one off costs to be recorded in the comparable operating result for Q4 2025, linked to the restructuring measures in Finland (company announcement).
- Appointment of Anssi Tammilehto as Chief Financial Officer and member of the Corporate Leadership Team, effective no later than 2 February 2026, with Antti Kiljunen serving as interim CFO (company announcement).
- Completion of a EUR 60 million modernisation project at the Simpele paperboard mill, which has raised the share of fossil free energy in production from 89% to 98% and enhanced production efficiency (company announcement).
- Launch of the renewed MetsäBoard Classic FBB folding boxboard, which offers improved print quality and visual uniformity for food and healthcare packaging customers, supported by new curtain coating technology (company announcement).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: unchanged at €3.00 per share, with no material revision to the base case valuation.
- Discount Rate: risen slightly from 6.19% to 6.21%, reflecting marginal adjustments in risk assumptions.
- Revenue Growth: effectively unchanged at approximately 5.0% per year, indicating stable medium term growth expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: stable at around 7.33%, with only negligible model driven rounding changes.
- Future P/E: increased slightly from 7.33x to 7.34x, indicating a modestly higher multiple applied to forward earnings.
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