Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 3.93%Novo Nordisk's fair value estimate has been revised downward, primarily reflecting a modest decline in the company’s future P/E multiple, with the consensus analyst price target decreasing from DKK484.33 to DKK465.30.
What's in the News
- Novo Nordisk continues to expand its GLP-1 portfolio, with FDA approvals for new indications: Ozempic® is now the first and only drug approved to treat both glycemic control and reduce cardiovascular and kidney risks in type 2 diabetes (T2D) with chronic kidney disease (CKD), while Wegovy® received the first-ever GLP-1 approval for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), showing significant improvements in fibrosis and resolution of steatohepatitis (Key Developments, Aug 15 & 19, 2025).
- Major collaborations are enhancing access: A partnership with GoodRx enables self-paying patients to access all strengths of Ozempic® and Wegovy® at $499/month, significantly improving affordability for millions without adequate insurance; expanded initiatives with WeightWatchers provide simplified prescription, bundled pricing, and research into integrated care models (Key Developments, Jul 1, Jun 26, Aug 18, 2025).
- R&D progress remains strong, with new real-world and clinical data on the cardiovascular benefits of semaglutide slated for presentation at major conferences, positive results from the STEP UP obesity trial (showing high and sustained weight loss with higher doses of semaglutide), development of amycretin and CagriSema moving to phase 3 for weight management, progress of Mim8 for hemophilia A, and coramitug advancing to phase 3 for ATTR amyloidosis (Key Developments, Jun-Aug 2025).
- Governance changes and investor pressure are ongoing: Maziar Mike Doustdar is appointed CEO effective August 2025, following investor dissatisfaction over share price declines and Parvus Asset Management’s push for leadership changes after disappointing obesity drug results and lower sales (Key Developments, Jul 29, Jun 9, 2025).
- Legal and financial headwinds have emerged: Novo Nordisk faces a class action securities lawsuit alleging misleading statements about growth potential and the impact of compounded GLP-1 products; Q2 2025 guidance was lowered due to persistent use of compounded products and slower-than-expected market expansion, resulting in a 21.8% share price drop, although a 7% dividend increase was announced (Key Developments, Aug 6 & 15, Jul 29, 2025).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Novo Nordisk
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from DKK484.33 to DKK465.30.
- The Future P/E for Novo Nordisk has fallen slightly from 17.34x to 16.66x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Novo Nordisk remained effectively unchanged, at 8.3% per annum.
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