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HLUN B: Long Term Revenue Outlook Will Likely Weigh On Shares

Global Pricing Controls Will Erode CNS Drug Portfolios

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HLUN B
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 26 Jun 2025

Update shared on 13 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 2.63%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
5.6%
7D
-1.5%

Analysts have nudged their price target on H. Lundbeck up by approximately 1 currency unit to 39, citing a slightly higher projected profit margin and modestly richer future valuation multiples, even as they temper long term revenue growth expectations and apply a marginally higher discount rate.

What's in the News

  • New data on investigational epilepsy therapy bexicaserin will be showcased in eight presentations at the 2025 American Epilepsy Society Congress, highlighting sustained seizure reduction in rare childhood epilepsies and a consistent safety profile (Key Developments).
  • Lundbeck's new drug application for migraine preventive therapy Vyepti has been accepted by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, supporting a broader Asian rollout following filings in China and South Korea (Key Developments).
  • The company raised its 2025 revenue growth guidance to 13 to 14 percent at constant exchange rates, up from 11 to 13 percent, reflecting stronger commercial momentum (Key Developments).
  • Lundbeck announced a strategic collaboration with OpenAI to deploy enterprise AI tools across its global operations, aiming to speed research, enhance decision making, and improve productivity from early discovery through commercialization (Key Developments).
  • A new research alliance with Contera Pharma will focus on RNA targeted oligonucleotide medicines for serious neurological diseases, expanding Lundbeck's pipeline into RNA therapeutics with milestone and royalty based economics for Contera (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate increased slightly from DKK 38.0 to DKK 39.0, reflecting modestly higher projected profitability and valuation multiples.
  • Discount Rate edged up from 4.92 percent to 5.08 percent, implying a marginally higher required return for equity holders.
  • Revenue Growth Assumption was reduced significantly from around 1.83 percent to about 0.33 percent, signaling a more cautious long term top line outlook.
  • Net Profit Margin improved modestly from roughly 16.58 percent to about 16.99 percent, indicating expectations of slightly better operating efficiency.
  • Future P/E Multiple was nudged higher from 10.84x to about 10.88x, suggesting a small upward adjustment in the market valuation applied to future earnings.

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