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TA: Leadership Transition And Strong Power Production Will Support Future Upside

Share Buybacks and Expanding Demand Will Shape Renewable Outlook

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TA
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 28 Dec 2024

Update shared on 08 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-0.05%
7D
-1.9%

Analysts have modestly refined their valuation model for TransAlta, leaving the fair value estimate effectively unchanged at approximately $23.59 per share. Slight reductions in the discount rate and future P E assumption offset one another in their outlook.

What's in the News

  • Reported strong operating performance for the third quarter of 2025, with power production rising to 6,151 GWh from 5,712 GWh a year earlier, and nine month production up to 17,796 GWh from 16,612 GWh (Key Developments).
  • Announced that President and CEO John Kousinioris will retire effective April 30, 2026. Current CFO Joel Hunter has been appointed to succeed him and join the Board on the same date (Key Developments).
  • Confirmed that no shares were repurchased under the buyback program between July 1 and September 30, 2025, leaving the CAD 0 million tranche effectively unused (Key Developments).
  • Scheduled an Analyst and Investor Day to provide an in depth overview of strategic priorities, long term plans, financial outlook, and growth objectives (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at approximately CA$23.59 per share, indicating no material shift in the analysts’ intrinsic value assessment.
  • The Discount Rate has fallen slightly from about 7.68 percent to roughly 7.64 percent, reflecting a modest reduction in perceived risk or cost of capital.
  • Revenue Growth is essentially unchanged at around 65.5 percent, suggesting no meaningful revision to top line expansion assumptions.
  • The Net Profit Margin is effectively flat at about 7.66 percent, indicating stable expectations for underlying profitability.
  • The Future P/E has edged down slightly from roughly 44.63 times to about 44.57 times, signaling a minor adjustment to the long term earnings multiple applied.

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Disclaimer

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