CJT: Ongoing Network Expansion Will Drive Recovery Despite Market Headwinds

Cargojet's analyst price target was reduced significantly, dropping from C$144.83 to C$120.50. Analysts cite softer revenue growth, compressed profit margins, and a higher discount rate in their latest assessments.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst updates for Cargojet reflect a mixed outlook, with valuation adjustments signaling both caution and continued confidence in the company's long-term prospects. The following summarizes key perspectives from recent research reports.

• Bullish analysts retain positive ratings despite lowering price targets. This indicates confidence in Cargojet's ability to navigate current headwinds.
• The company's core business model continues to be viewed as resilient. Ongoing demand in the air cargo sector supports expectations for eventual revenue growth recovery.
• Price target increases earlier in the period suggest that some analysts see potential for operational improvement and upside as market conditions stabilize.
• Maintained buy or outperform ratings reflect ongoing belief in Cargojet's long-term growth strategy and execution potential.

• Bearish analysts are cautious due to persistent revenue softness and margin compression. These factors have pressured share valuation and driven downward target revisions.
• Higher discount rates and macroeconomic uncertainty are weighing on near-term outlooks, resulting in more conservative price targets.
• Repeated target reductions over the last several months highlight ongoing concerns about execution risk and Cargojet's ability to meet prior growth expectations.
• Concerns remain regarding the pace at which Cargojet can recover profitability and whether operational adjustments will be sufficient in a challenging market environment.

What's in the News

• Pauline Dhillon, a founding partner with over 24 years at Cargojet, has been named Chief Executive Officer effective January 1, 2026. (Key Developments)
• Co-CEO and founding member Jamie B. Porteous will retire from his executive role on December 31, 2025. He will transition to the role of Strategic Advisor until the end of 2026. (Key Developments)
• Cargojet is launching a new direct air cargo service connecting Canada to Liege Airport in Europe. The service will start on November 1, 2025, and represents a significant expansion of its global network. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen significantly from CA$144.83 to CA$120.50, reflecting reduced market expectations.
• Discount Rate has risen from 7.51% to 8.19%, indicating higher perceived investment risk.
• Revenue Growth forecasts have decreased considerably, moving from 3.71% to 1.64%.
• Net Profit Margin projections have declined from 9.74% to 5.01%, suggesting increased pressure on profitability.
• Future P/E ratio has increased markedly from 19.35x to 37.66x. This implies lower earnings expectations or a higher valuation relative to projected earnings.