Update shared on 09 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 4.19%Narrative Update on Lightspeed Commerce
Analysts have slightly lowered their fair value estimate for Lightspeed Commerce from $21.28 to $20.39. This reflects cautious optimism around improved profit margins and progress in revenue growth, while also noting the need for more consistent execution before a higher multiple is justified.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research coverage on Lightspeed Commerce reflects a mix of optimism about strategic progress and caution regarding the company's execution and valuation outlook.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts note that Lightspeed is making progress in expanding its presence in growth markets, particularly by increasing customer locations.
- There is recognition of improvements in average revenue per user (ARPU), supporting long-term monetization efforts.
- Expectations for rising profitability reflect improved operating leverage as the company scales.
- Recent upward revisions to price targets highlight confidence in Lightspeed's ongoing growth and revenue expansion.
- Bearish analysts maintain that Lightspeed's execution must remain consistent to warrant higher valuation multiples.
- Despite progress, some believe that further evidence of sustainable growth and margin expansion is needed before a more optimistic outlook is justified.
- Price targets remain conservative overall, with a preference to see more durable performance trends before recommending the shares more strongly.
What's in the News
- Lightspeed Commerce Inc. provided earnings guidance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026, projecting revenue between $309 million and $312 million. (Key Developments)
- The company raised its earnings guidance for Fiscal 2026, anticipating at least 12% year-over-year revenue growth due to strong first-half performance. (Key Developments)
- In the second quarter, the company introduced a broad suite of product innovations, including AI-powered tools for retailers, a new Generative AI web builder for all retail merchants, automated product descriptions, and the launch of NuORDER Marketplace for wholesale. (Key Developments)
- Hospitality merchants now have access to an expanded Integration Hub with over 200 new third-party tools, improved payment options in Australia, and Lightspeed Capital availability for merchants in Switzerland. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: The estimated fair value has decreased slightly from CA$21.28 to CA$20.39.
- Discount Rate: The applied discount rate has risen marginally from 7.47% to 7.49%.
- Revenue Growth: Projected revenue growth has declined modestly from 11.44% to 11.10%.
- Net Profit Margin: Expected profit margin has improved from 11.65% to 12.54%.
- Future P/E: The future price-to-earnings ratio forecast has fallen from 11.50x to 9.88x.
Disclaimer
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