DCBO: Enterprise Focus And Upmarket Expansion Will Drive Long-Term Returns

Analysts have modestly reduced their price targets on Docebo, trimming expectations by mid single digits in dollar terms to reflect a slightly higher discount rate, while still highlighting the company’s strong competitive position, enterprise focus, and above market growth trajectory in learning management systems.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research on Docebo reflects a mix of optimism on the company’s long term growth profile and caution around near term valuation and execution risks. Targets and ratings have been adjusted to balance robust operating momentum with a higher discount rate environment.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts emphasize Docebo’s position as a leading learning management platform, noting that it continues to gain share by displacing legacy vendors and moving further upmarket into larger, stickier enterprise accounts.
• Coverage initiations and resumed ratings with Buy or Outperform stances highlight confidence that Docebo’s growth can outpace the broader software sector, supported by expansion into new geographies and verticals.
• Higher average revenue per user is seen as a key driver of upside to consensus, as the company cross sells premium capabilities and deepens wallet share with existing customers.
• Bullish analysts argue that, even after recent price target cuts, the stock’s risk reward remains compelling relative to peers given its combination of durable growth, improving profitability, and a still scalable go to market model.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to reduced price targets as a sign that valuation needs to better reflect higher discount rates and a more selective market for high growth software, even when fundamentals remain solid.
• There is some concern that execution risk could rise as Docebo pushes further into large enterprise and global deployments, where deal cycles can be longer and implementations more complex.
• Some commentary suggests that, while growth is strong, expectations may already embed continued outperformance, limiting multiple expansion if macro conditions or software budgets soften.
• Bearish analysts also flag that competitive intensity in learning and talent platforms could pressure pricing or sales efficiency over time, potentially constraining upside to current valuation frameworks.

What's in the News

• Intercap Equity Inc entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a 12.64% stake in Docebo Inc. from a Warburg Pincus managed vehicle for CAD 95.8 million, involving 3,630,715 common shares at CAD 6.39 per share. Closing is expected around February 27, 2026, subject to limited conditions (Key Developments).
• Docebo issued earnings guidance for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, projecting total revenue between $62.0 million and $62.2 million (Key Developments).
• The company revised its full year 2025 outlook and now expects total revenue growth of 11.40% for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value estimate remains unchanged at CA$49.81 per share, indicating no material shift in intrinsic value assumptions.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 7.44% to approximately 7.50%, reflecting a modestly higher required return.
• Revenue Growth assumptions are effectively unchanged, holding around 8.40% and signaling stable expectations for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin outlook is stable at roughly 17.01%, with no notable revisions to long term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E multiple has increased slightly from about 20.48x to 20.89x, suggesting a modestly higher valuation placed on forward earnings.