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CTC.A: Dividends And Buybacks Will Support Measured Returns Ahead

CTC.A: Operating Expense Clarity Will Dictate Earnings Trajectory And Near-Term Rangebound Trading

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CTC.A
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 04 Dec 2024

Update shared on 10 Dec 2025

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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
8.7%
7D
-2.9%

Analysts have modestly revised their price target on Canadian Tire Corporation upward to approximately $180.55 per share. This reflects largely unchanged assumptions for fair value, revenue growth, profit margins, and future valuation multiples, along with a slightly lower discount rate that marginally enhances the stock's risk adjusted appeal.

What's in the News

  • Board declares a quarterly dividend of $1.80 per share payable March 1, 2026, marking the 16th consecutive annual increase and lifting the annual payout to $7.20 per share, up approximately 1.4% year over year (Key Developments)
  • Company plans to initiate a new share repurchase program in 2026, authorizing up to an additional $400 million in Class A Non Voting share buybacks (Key Developments)
  • Canadian Tire reports completion of a major tranche of its 2025 buyback, repurchasing 2,228,108 shares, or 4.06% of shares outstanding, for a total of CAD 366.8 million (Key Developments)
  • Launch of the first Hudson's Bay Stripes holiday capsule collection in Canadian Tire stores beginning December 5, 2025, marking the first major product milestone since acquiring Hudson's Bay brand assets (Key Developments)
  • Expanded partnership with the Gord Downie & Chanie Wenjack Fund to support Oshki Wupoowane | The Blanket Fund, with Canadian Tire committing 100% of its net proceeds from Hudson's Bay Point Blanket sales and a minimum of $1 million annually to Indigenous led initiatives (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at approximately CA$180.55 per share, indicating no material revision to intrinsic value assumptions.
  • The discount rate edged down slightly from about 10.25 percent to roughly 10.23 percent, modestly increasing the present value of projected cash flows.
  • Revenue growth remains effectively unchanged at about 25.33 percent, reflecting stable expectations for top line expansion.
  • The net profit margin is effectively flat at approximately 4.44 percent, signaling no meaningful change in long term profitability assumptions.
  • The future P/E multiple was nudged down slightly from about 15.12 times to roughly 15.11 times, implying a marginally lower valuation multiple applied to future earnings.

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Disclaimer

AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.