Early Year 2026 Update

🪙 Lahontan Gold – Updated Snapshot (2025 / Early 2026)

Open-pit Nevada gold developer advancing the Santa Fe project toward a near-term development decision. Very low market cap relative to potential — still a compelling optionality play in a strong gold market. They have 4 projects (Santa Fe, West Santa Fe, Moho, Redlich), for now we only evaluate 1 which is Sante Fe, so undervalued!

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🔢 Updated Shares Outstanding (Post 2025 Issuances)

• ~334.4 million common shares outstanding — post exercise of warrants and options. Nasdaq+1 • This is the most recent confirmed figure from company reporting (Oct 2025).

Note: Different data sources show varying counts (e.g., ~290–355M) owing to timing and different reporting platforms, but the 334.4M figure tied to actual warrant/option exercises from late 2025 is the best current reference. Yahoo Finance+1

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💵 AISC (Updated Worst-Case Assumption)

Lahontan has no published steady-state AISC yet (pre-production), so we assume a high but realistic cost:

➡️ AISC Used: US$1,900/oz — conservative scenario incorporating fuel, reagents, strip ratio, and overhead.

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⚠️ Key Risks

• Funding risk — ~$150M+ capex likely required; equity/dilution probable.

• Permitting timeline — Nevada best cases ~18–30 months; accelerated but not trivial.

• Metallurgy (sulphide domain) — recovery risk for deeper zones.

• Resource growth pressure — current ~1.9 Moz resource needs expansion for confident mine life >80 koz/yr.

• Execution timing — market expectations vs technical/permit reality.

• AISC pressure — worst-case cost environment could compress margins.

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⚡ Catalysts (12–24 Months)

• Early 2026 Updated MRE — using 2025/West Santa Fe drilling. • H1 2026 Updated PEA — refining 70–80 koz/yr plan.

• West Santa Fe (historic) drilling — converting into resource.

• Continued metallurgy data.

• Permitting progress (BLM exploration approvals achieved; construction permits next).

• Financing structures (stream/royalty/debt).

• Potential construction decision as studies de-risk.

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🗺️ Pathway to Production

Q1 2026 — updated MRE; begin updated PEA. H1–H2 2026 — updated PEA; permitting groundwork continues.

2026–2027 — engineering, permitting, financing.

2027 — construction decision/heap-leach construction/production

2028 — steady state 70–80 koz/year.

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📊 Valuation Scenarios (AISC = US$1,900; Shares = 334.4M)

Use: • annual gold = 80,000 oz • AISC = US$1,900/oz • Shares = 334.4 M • CAD FX = 1.36

Annual FCF = (Gold Price – AISC) × 80,000 oz

💰 Gold = US$5,000/oz

Margin = 5,000 – 1,900 = US$3,100/oz

Annual FCF ≈ US$248M

💰 Gold = US$6,000/oz

Margin = 6,000 – 1,900 = US$4,100/oz

Annual FCF ≈ US$328M

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🎯 Updated Conclusion

Even with higher shares outstanding (~334M) and a conservative AISC of US$1,900/oz:

🔹 At US$5,000 gold, fair-value per share ranges roughly C$10–20 (multiples 10×–20×). 🔹 At US$6,000 gold, ranges widen to roughly C$13–27 (10×–20×).

Compared to the current micro-cap market valuations (often under C$100M–C$150M), this implies significant upside under sustained high gold price regimes — particularly if the updated MRE + PEA validate a robust mine plan.