WPM Will Navigate Higher Metal Price Expectations Amid Mixed Macro Backdrop

Analysts have lifted their price targets for Wheaton Precious Metals into the low to mid $130 range, citing higher long term precious metal price forecasts, resilient demand amid macro headwinds, and ongoing capital returns and M&A momentum as support for a higher fair value, despite slightly lower growth and margin expectations.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research has highlighted a broadly constructive outlook for Wheaton Precious Metals, with multiple price target increases across North American and international markets. Higher long term assumptions for gold and silver, along with supportive views on copper and aluminum, underpin a stronger valuation framework for the streaming model and its diversified asset base.

Analysts point to the company’s exposure to rising precious metals prices, resilient demand despite macro uncertainty, and a sustained program of capital returns and M&A as key drivers supporting upside to current levels. Updated metals price decks, including materially higher gold and silver forecasts, have driven a reset higher in fair value estimates across several research shops.

At the same time, the tone of recent notes acknowledges that the macro environment remains mixed. Slowing commodity demand in China and intermittent softness in broader industrial activity are seen as potential offsets to improving demand trends in the U.S. and Europe. For Wheaton, this raises the bar for execution on its growth pipeline and for delivering the volume, margin, and return profile embedded in raised targets.

Several firms also highlight that the recent rally in precious metals and equities may have pulled forward some returns, leaving less valuation cushion if commodity prices or deal flow underperform expectations. While the consensus remains skewed toward positive ratings, commentary has shifted toward a more balanced risk reward framing that emphasizes both the opportunity from higher prices and the need for disciplined capital allocation.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts flag that the rapid series of price target upgrades, driven largely by higher gold and silver decks, leaves limited room for disappointment if metals prices retrace or stabilize below current bullish forecasts.
• Some cautious commentary suggests that recent strength in the share price already discounts a robust pipeline of future streaming deals, creating valuation risk if M&A momentum slows or transactions fail to meet return hurdles.
• Bearish analysts see macro headwinds, including weaker Chinese commodity demand and uneven industrial activity, as a potential drag on underlying asset performance, which could pressure Wheaton’s volume growth and margin assumptions.
• There is concern that, following a period of outperformance, the company may face higher execution risk on new projects and expansions, with any delays or cost overruns likely to be penalized more heavily given the richer starting valuation.

What's in the News

• Closed a $300 million gold stream with newly renamed Hemlo Mining Corp. to support its acquisition of the Hemlo Mine from Barrick, immediately adding production and cash flow for Wheaton (Key Developments).
• Secured long term exposure to Hemlo with a tiered streaming structure starting at 10.13% of payable gold, stepping down over time but continuing for the life of mine. The agreement includes performance based stream percentage adjustments if deliveries lag the agreed schedule (Key Developments).
• Expanded reserves and resources through the Hemlo transaction, adding an estimated 0.19 Moz of Proven and Probable gold reserves plus additional Measured, Indicated and Inferred resources to Wheaton’s portfolio (Key Developments).
• Obtained a right of first refusal on future precious metal streams and similar financings from Hemlo, backed by corporate guarantees and first priority security over substantially all of Hemlo Mining Corp.’s assets (Key Developments).
• Advanced growth pipeline with a new precious metals purchase agreement for the Spring Valley Project in Nevada through Wheaton Precious Metals International, supporting construction targeted to start in 2026 and first gold in the first half of 2028 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen significantly, moving from CA$124.67 to CA$161.69. This implies a materially higher assessed intrinsic value for the shares.
• The Discount Rate has increased modestly from 6.54% to 7.13%. This reflects a slightly higher required return or perceived risk in the valuation model.
• Revenue Growth has been revised down slightly, with long term assumptions reduced from 6.99% to 5.68% annually.
• The Net Profit Margin has edged lower, moving from 51.80% to 47.53%, indicating more conservative expectations for future profitability.
• The Future P/E has expanded meaningfully from 54.0x to 63.9x, suggesting a higher valuation multiple being applied to forward earnings.