$100 silvers' price, 5x CF, 100m outstanding shares

🪙 Vizsla Silver (VZLA) – Updated Stock Price Estimate & Outlook

Latest verified info

• Shares Outstanding (basic): ~278.7 million; Warrants ~5.3M; Options ~21M → Fully Diluted ~306.8 million shares. (Vizsla Silver Corp.)
• Some third-party sources show ~343-344M shares outstanding, but company stock info page uses ~278.7M basic; I’ll use 306.8M FD for per-share modelling unless a newer official figure appears. (Vizsla Silver Corp.)
• AISC (or equivalent) from the PEA: US$9.40/oz AgEq for the Panuco project, per the PEA (co-product basis). (Vizsla Silver Corp.)
• LOM Avg Annual Production: ~15.2 million ounces AgEq/year; mine life ~10.6 years. Initial capacity ~3,300 tpd increasing to ~4,000 tpd in Year 4. (Vizsla Silver Corp.)
• Initial CapEx: ~US$224 million. (Vizsla Silver Corp.)

⚠️ Risks

• Feasibility risks: The PEA is solid, but the upcoming FS (Feasibility Study) in H2 2025 could show higher costs, lower recoveries, or require more CapEx.
• Financing / Dilution: The project needs capital for FS, permits, construction; financing often brings dilution.
• Permits & regulatory delays: Even though many approvals are in place, FS+construction require more permits; local/community relations matter.
• Execution surprises: Underground mining + expansion (3,300 to 4,000 tpd) could bring operational challenges — mine design, ground conditions, water, power etc.
• Metal price sensitivity: Though the current AISC is very low (US$9.40), margin erodes if silver/gold prices decline.
• Share count uncertainty: Different sources report varying basic/fd share counts; using a higher or lower number changes per-share valuations significantly.

⚡ Catalysts

• Release of Feasibility Study (FS) in H2 2025 with confirmed AISC, CAPEX, mine plan.
• Completion of bulk sample / “test mine” or pilot works to validate PEA assumptions.
• Financing package being secured (Macquarie mandate mentioned) for construction.
• Permitting milestones and community / ejido agreements.
• Resource upgrade / infill drilling to convert Inferred to Measured/Indicated.
• Silver/gold price increases that make margin expansion likely.

🗺️ Risks & Catalysts Mapped to Timeline

H2 2025

• 🚧 Risks: FS may show higher cost; delays in data collection; community/permitting objections.
• ⚡ Catalysts: FS release; drilling/auto sample programs; securing financing; advancing bulk sample.

2026

• 🚧 Risks: Construction cost inflation; delays in construction; ramp to nameplate could be slower; working capital / supply chain constraints.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Construction begins; first production targets; cash flow from early years; costs begin to stabilize.

2027–2028

• 🚧 Risks: Operations risks scaling up; sustaining capital costs; maintenance; possible decline in metal price; potential for dilution if expansions or setbacks.
• ⚡ Catalysts: Full production scale; steady cash flow; exploration upside realized; possible re-rating in market sentiment.

📊 FCF Scenarios (using PEA data, fully diluted shares = ~306.8M)

Assumptions:

• Annual Production = 15.2 million AgEq oz (from PEA) (Vizsla Silver Corp.)
• AISC (AgEq) = US$9.40/oz (co-product basis) per PEA — a low-cost bench. (Vizsla Silver Corp.)

Scenario A: Silver = US$100/oz

• Margin/oz = 100 − 9.40 = US$90.60/oz
• Annual FCF = 15,200,000 × 90.60 ≈ US$1,378.0M
• Valuation Multiples:   • 10× = US$13.78B → per share ≈ US$44.90/sh   • 15× = US$20.67B → ~ US$67.35/sh   • 20× = US$27.56B → ~ US$89.79/sh

Scenario B: Silver = US$150/oz

• Margin/oz = 150 − 9.40 = US$140.60/oz
• Annual FCF = 15,200,000 × 140.60 ≈ US$2,138.0M
• Valuation Multiples:   • 10× = US$21.38B → per share ≈ US$69.70/sh   • 15× = US$32.07B → ~ US$104.55/sh   • 20× = US$42.76B → ~ US$139.40/sh

🎯 Conclusion

✅ Using the PEA’s low AISC (~US$9.40/oz AgEq) and production of ~15.2 Moz/year, Vizsla looks very well positioned in a bull silver environment.

✅ At US$100 silver, fair value might be US$45-90/share depending on multiple; at US$150 silver, US$70-140/share.

⚠️ Caveats: FS must confirm PEA-level costs and recoveries; share count clarity matters; financing & execution risk nontrivial.

🚀 Overall, Vizsla is high-beta with strong upside potential if FS + permitting + price tailwinds align well.