NGD: Revenue Will Rise As $4,500 Gold Supports Continued Outperformance

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on New Gold, reflecting slightly higher long term valuation multiples and updated precious metal price forecasts that support a fair value of approximately C$15.12 per share.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research notes highlight a constructive backdrop for New Gold, with multiple price target increases reflecting stronger long term commodity assumptions and improved company specific execution.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts have raised their price targets, signaling increased confidence that New Gold can sustain higher earnings power and justify a premium to prior valuation multiples.
• Upward revisions to long term gold and silver price forecasts support a more favorable revenue and cash flow outlook and bolster the case for multiple expansion over the next several years.
• Maintained positive stock ratings alongside higher targets suggest that recent operational performance is viewed as aligned with, or modestly ahead of, prior expectations for growth and execution.
• Higher projected metal prices into 2026 and 2027 provide a longer runway for balance sheet strengthening and potential reinvestment in growth projects, which underpins a higher fair value range.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that part of the recent target hikes represent a catch up to year to date share price strength, which implies more limited upside from current levels.
• There is sensitivity to commodity price assumptions, with valuation still heavily dependent on achieving elevated gold and silver prices through 2026 and beyond.
• Execution risks, including potential cost inflation and project delivery timelines, could pressure margins and limit the extent to which higher metal prices translate into incremental free cash flow.
• After a strong run in both gold prices and the stock, any disappointment in macro conditions or company specific performance could prompt a reassessment of the more optimistic target levels.

What's in the News

• Coeur Mining agreed to acquire New Gold in an all stock transaction valuing New Gold at approximately $6.8 billion. The deal implies $8.51 per share and would leave New Gold shareholders with about 38% of the combined company, with closing targeted for the first half of 2026 (M&A Transaction Announcements).
• New Gold reaffirmed its 2025 production guidance, expecting total gold output of 325,000 to 365,000 ounces. The company anticipates New Afton at the midpoint and Rainy River above the midpoint of their respective ranges, and copper production at the midpoint of 50 to 60 million pounds (Corporate Guidance).
• The company reported third quarter 2025 production of 115,213 ounces of gold and 12.0 million pounds of copper, with year to date gold output rising to 245,994 ounces compared with 217,865 ounces a year earlier (Announcement of Operating Results).
• Management indicated New Gold is actively evaluating acquisitions while prioritizing a strong balance sheet, organic growth, and disciplined capital allocation focused on per share value creation (Seeking Acquisitions/Investments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately CA$15.12 per share, indicating no material shift in the underlying intrinsic value estimate.
• Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 7.21% to 7.27%, reflecting a modest increase in perceived risk or required return.
• Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at around 14.07% annually, suggesting a stable outlook for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at approximately 39.30%, indicating no meaningful revision to long term profitability expectations.
• Future P/E: Risen modestly from about 14.57x to 14.81x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.