Loading...
Back to narrative

K: Future Earnings Multiple Expansion Will Likely Overstate Underlying Profitability

ESG Pressures And Digital Trends Will Erode Physical Gold Demand

K logo
K
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 21 Jul 2025

Update shared on 20 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 37%
n/a
n/a
AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
n/a
Loading
1Y
196.8%
7D
2.5%

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Kinross Gold from approximately $12.50 to about $17.05 per share. They cite expectations for moderating revenue declines, slightly higher long run profit margins, and a marginally richer future earnings multiple, even after factoring in a higher discount rate.

What's in the News

  • Issued new production guidance indicating fourth quarter output is expected to be slightly below 0.5 million gold equivalent ounces, while full year 2025 production should finish slightly above the midpoint of the 2.0 million (+/- 5%) attributable gold equivalent ounce range (Company guidance).
  • Reported third quarter 2025 consolidated production of 520,301 gold equivalent ounces, down 12% year over year, with attributable production falling to 503,862 ounces from 564,106 ounces (Company operating results).
  • Disclosed nine month 2025 production of 1,580,239 gold equivalent ounces, a 5% decline from the prior year, with attributable production down 6% to 1,528,524 ounces (Company operating results).
  • Announced completion of a major share buyback tranche, retiring 23,328,908 shares, or 1.91% of shares outstanding, for a total cost of $411.5 million under the program launched on March 19, 2025 (Buyback update).
  • Declared a third quarter 2025 dividend of $0.035 per common share, payable December 10, 2025 to shareholders of record on November 26, 2025 (Dividend announcement).

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate has risen significantly, increasing from approximately $12.50 to about $17.05 per share, implying a materially higher assessed intrinsic value.
  • Discount Rate has increased modestly, moving from about 6.5% to roughly 7.2%, reflecting a somewhat higher required return applied to future cash flows.
  • Revenue Growth outlook has improved meaningfully, with the long run annual decline easing from roughly negative 5.0% to about negative 0.8%.
  • Net Profit Margin assumption has risen slightly, from about 20.6% to roughly 22.3%, indicating expectations for somewhat better underlying profitability.
  • Future P/E multiple has edged higher, from around 12.1x to roughly 12.4x, suggesting a marginally richer valuation on expected earnings.

Have other thoughts on Kinross Gold?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.