Q4 2025 ASIC

🪙 Jaguar Mining (JAG.TO / JAGGF) – High-Torque Brazil Gold Producer Snapshot (2025)

📌 Latest Snapshot (as of late 2025)

• Mines & assets
  • Producing mine: Pilar (Brazil).
  • Turmalina mine: temporarily suspended after a dry-stack tailings incident in Dec 2024; restart and remediation plan in progress. (Junior Mining Network)
  • Two producing mines historically, plus additional development & exploration ground in Brazil with ~3.3 Moz gold resources (1.7 Moz M&I). (goldstockdata.com)
• Current production
  • 2025 production so far is only from Pilar:
    • Q1 2025: 9,923 oz. (Junior Mining Network)
    • Q3 2025: 10,002 oz; 30,657 oz in the first nine months of 2025. (OTC Markets)
• Shares outstanding
  • Various sources show ~79–84M shares:
    • Q3 2025 filings: weighted-avg shares ~79.3M. (Jaguar Mining)
    • Goldstockdata profile (May 2025): 84M shares outstanding, no debt, ~US$40M cash. (goldstockdata.com)
  • For valuation, I’ll use 84M shares (more conservative).
• Costs (AISC)
  • Q2 2025 articles/analysis show AISC ≈ US$1,726–1,814/oz (spike due to being a one-mine operation after Turmalina suspension). (AInvest)
  • I’ll assume a long-run AISC of US$1,900/oz ramp-up scenarios (slightly worst than current, but still high vs peers).
• Balance sheet & liquidity
  • As of May 2025: no debt, about US$40M cash (Goldstockdata). (goldstockdata.com)
  • They also disclosed a US$27M fine, payable over 5 years, relating to the tailings issue at Turmalina (liability rather than classic debt).
• Long-term potential
  • Management’s new plan (and my expectations):
    • 2026: ~80k oz
    • 2027: ~90k oz
    • 2028: ~100k oz
    • 2029: ~120k oz
    • 2030: ~140k–150k oz (plus upside to >200k oz if all three mills run full).
  • Goldstockdata also calls out that Jaguar could triple production over 5 years, so growth curve is directionally aligned with bullish third-party views. (Seeking Alpha)

📉 AISC & Production Framework Used for Valuation

• Steady-state cases we’ll model:
  • Case 1: 150k oz/yr (main target for 2030).
  • Case 2: 200k oz/yr (stretch case if all three mills are fed at decent grades).
• Cost assumption:
  • AISC = US$1,700/oz
    • Slightly below the recent spike (~US$1,726–1,814/oz), but assumes benefits from:
      • Turmalina coming back online.
      • Better scale & fixed-cost dilution.
      • New CEO’s optimization plan. (AInvest)

⚠️ Risks

• Tailings / environmental risk
  • Turmalina’s dry-stack issue already caused a big disruption and a US$27M fine. Any repeat would be serious for costs, permits, and reputation.
• Cost risk
  • Current AISC is high for a one-mine producer. If AISC stays near US$1,800–2,000/oz instead of dropping, margin at 4,500–5,000 gold is smaller than model.
• Execution risk
  • Hitting 80k → 150k → 200k oz/yr needs:
    • Turmalina back on line, safely.
    • A third mill + new ore sources.
    • Successful drilling to support higher throughput.
  • Any misstep in underground development, dilution control, or grade could delay the ramp.
• Brazil country risk
  • Brazil is a big mining country but:
    • Taxes, royalties, or environmental rules can change.
    • Local communities and regulators need to stay supportive.
• Gold price risk
  • Upside math leans on US$4,500–5,000 gold. If gold “only” stays around US$2,500–3,000, the 18–20x bagger potential drops.
• Dilution / financing
  • Even with strong FCF at higher gold prices, they may still:
    • Issue shares for exploration / expansion.
    • Use stock as currency for M&A.
  • That pushes per-share upside down.

⚡ Catalysts (what could move the stock)

• Turmalina restart progress
  • Clear timeline + safe, staged restart would:
    • Lift production.
    • Spread fixed costs.
    • Lower AISC.
• New CEO’s growth plan
  • Evidence that guidance is being met or beaten:
    • Quarterly production and AISC trending in the right direction.
    • More detail on a path to 150k–200k oz/yr.
• Drilling success
  • 200k m over 5 years = lots of shots on goal.
  • New ounces to:
    • Extend mine life.
    • Justify bringing the third mill out of care & maintenance.
• Third mill restart decision
  • A formal plan to fill all 6,000 tpd of capacity is the line of sight to your 200k+ oz/year scenario.
• Gold price moves
  • Sustained US$2,500–3,500 gold will:
    • Repair the balance sheet quickly.
    • Fund growth from internal cash.
  • Parabolic moves to US$4,500–5,000 give the extreme torque you’re modeling.

🗺️ Expected Timeline (Now → 2030)

2025–2026

• One-mine reality (Pilar only) while Turmalina is offline. (Junior Mining Network)
• Paying down the US$27M fine over 5 years.
• New CEO executing:
  • Cost control at Pilar.
  • Turmalina remediation and restart planning.
• My modeled production: ~80k oz in 2026 if Turmalina returns and operations normalize.

2027–2028

• Ramping second mine (Turmalina), possibly back toward historic production levels.
• Exploration metres accumulating; more clarity on:
  • Resource growth.
  • Third-mill restart.
• My path: ~90k–100k oz/yr by 2027–2028.

2029–2030

• If execution goes well:
  • 120k–150k oz/yr becomes realistic.
  • AISC starts to trend toward (or below) the US$1,900/oz assumption.
• Stretch goal:
  • Third mill reactivated.
  • High-grade feed across all mills → potentially 200k+ oz/yr (your upper case).

📊 FCF Sensitivity

📊 Jaguar Mining — FCF Valuation Scenarios

(Using worst-case AISC = US$1,900/oz, 84M shares, and CAD conversion)

Formula used:

FCF = Production × (Gold Price − AISC)

CAD value = FCF × FX (1.36)

Per-share = Market Cap ÷ 84M

We model two operating levels:

① Case A — 150,000 oz/year

② Case B — 200,000 oz/year (stretch)

🟡 Gold at US$4,500/oz

Margin per oz:

4,500 − 1,900 = US$2,600/oz

CASE A — 150,000 oz/year

FCF (USD) = 150,000 × 2,600 = US$390,000,000

Market cap (USD) • 10× = US$3.90B • 15× = US$5.85B • 20× = US$7.80B

Converted to CAD • 10× → C$5.30B • 15× → C$7.96B • 20× → C$10.61B

Per-share (CAD)

• 10× → C$63.10/share

• 15× → C$94.81/share

• 20× → C$126.31/share

CASE B — 200,000 oz/year (Stretch)

FCF (USD) = 200,000 × 2,600 = US$520,000,000

Market cap (USD) • 10× = US$5.20B • 15× = US$7.80B • 20× = US$10.40B

Converted to CAD • 10× → C$7.07B • 15× → C$10.61B • 20× → C$14.14B

Per-share (CAD)

• 10× → C$84.20/share

• 15× → C$126.31/share

• 20× → C$168.00/share

🟡 Gold at US$5,000/oz

Margin per oz:

5,000 − 1,900 = US$3,100/oz

CASE A — 150,000 oz/year

FCF (USD) = 150,000 × 3,100 = US$465,000,000

Market cap (USD) • 10× = US$4.65B • 15× = US$6.98B • 20× = US$9.30B

Converted to CAD • 10× → C$6.32B • 15× → C$9.49B • 20× → C$12.65B

Per-share (CAD)

• 10× → C$75.24/share

• 15× → C$113.02/share

• 20× → C$150.54/share

CASE B — 200,000 oz/year (Stretch)

FCF (USD) = 200,000 × 3,100 = US$620,000,000

Market cap (USD) • 10× = US$6.20B • 15× = US$9.30B • 20× = US$12.40B

Converted to CAD • 10× → C$8.43B • 15× → C$12.65B • 20× → C$16.87B

Per-share (CAD)

• 10× → C$100.36/share

• 15× → C$150.54/share

• 20× → C$200.71/share

🎯 Quick Take

• ✅ Current reality: ~40k oz/yr, one mine (Pilar), high AISC, but no financial debt and some cash.
• ✅ Your path: ramp to 150k–200k oz/yr via Turmalina restart + exploration + 3rd mill.
• ✅ At 4,500–5,000 gold, the per-share math in the US$50–150 range is plausible if they hit those ounces and reduce AISC.
• ⚠️ The big swing factors are:
  • Turmalina remediation & restart,
  • Cost control and AISC trend,
  • Exploration success and mill utilization,
  • And of course, the gold price.