Update shared on 16 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 1.19%Franco-Nevada's analyst price target has shifted modestly, rising from $337.23 to $341.26. Analysts incorporate adjustments for higher profit margins and update expectations based on persistent strength in commodity prices along with evolving market dynamics.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst commentary on Franco-Nevada reveals a dynamic mix of optimism and caution in response to evolving market conditions and company performance. The following sections highlight the key bullish and bearish takeaways influencing current valuation and forward-looking expectations.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts continue to raise price targets, driven by persistently strong commodity prices and the company’s ability to maintain robust profit margins.
- Upward revisions are supported by increased confidence in contributions from significant assets, such as Cote and Porcupine, along with anticipated higher deliveries from developing projects.
- Analysts highlight capital returns and ongoing momentum in corporate mergers and acquisitions as positive catalysts for growth and shareholder value.
- Several price target upgrades reflect a belief in the upside potential from assets like Cobre Panama and a positive outlook for copper, aluminum, and gold markets.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have lowered targets or maintained cautious ratings in response to recent pullbacks in gold prices and increased market volatility.
- Concerns have been raised about a possible rollover in investor sentiment, which could negatively impact valuation multiples despite strong recent operating performance.
- Some analysts remain cautious on valuation following the rally in metal royalty stocks. They suggest that future upside may be constrained if volatility persists.
What's in the News
- Franco-Nevada Corporation narrowed its sales guidance for 2025, now expecting Precious Metal GEO sales in the range of 420,000 GEO to 440,000 GEO. This is an increase from the initial guidance of 385,000 GEO to 425,000 GEO. Total GEO sales guidance has been narrowed to a range of 495,000 GEO to 525,000 GEO, compared to the prior range of 465,000 GEO to 525,000 GEO (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly from CA$337.23 to CA$341.26.
- Discount Rate increased from 6.64 percent to 7.04 percent. This reflects a more conservative approach to future risk and required returns.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has fallen significantly, decreasing from 15.04 percent to 7.60 percent.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has edged higher, moving from 65.13 percent to 65.98 percent.
- Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has increased, rising from 42.96x to 45.74x.
Disclaimer
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