ELD: Rising Reserves And Buybacks Will Support Future Share Price Momentum

Analysts have nudged their price target on Eldorado Gold slightly higher to reflect a modest uptick in forecast revenue growth and valuation multiples, partially offset by a small reduction in expected profit margins and a higher discount rate that tempers the overall upside.

What's in the News

• Updated Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource estimates as of September 30, 2025 show Proven and Probable gold reserves rising to 12.5 million ounces, roughly 5 percent higher than the prior statement. This marks the highest reserve level since the Lamaque acquisition in 2017 (company MRMR update).
• Lamaque Complex is positioned for long term growth with two underground mines. Continued exploration spending is planned for 2026 to extend mine lives in Canada and Turkiye and advance near mine targets (company MRMR update).
• Perama Hill Oxides and Skouries assets saw model driven reserve and resource reclassifications, with some decreases in Mineral Reserves and Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources. These were offset by reclassification to Inferred categories (company MRMR update).
• Between July 31 and September 30, 2025, the company completed a share repurchase tranche, buying back 2,015,696 shares, or about 0.99 percent of shares outstanding, for 53.22 million dollars (buyback tranche update).
• Third quarter 2025 gold production was 115,190 ounces versus 125,195 ounces a year earlier. Nine month output was broadly flat year over year at about 365,000 ounces, as the company tightened full year 2025 production guidance to 470,000 to 490,000 ounces (Q3 production results and 2025 guidance).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to CA$50.24 from CA$50.23, reflecting a marginally higher intrinsic value assessment.
• The Discount Rate has increased modestly to 7.59 percent from 7.53 percent, implying a slightly higher required return and a more conservative valuation stance.
• Revenue Growth has edged up to an expected 38.20 percent from 38.04 percent, indicating a small improvement in top line growth assumptions.
• The Net Profit Margin has eased slightly to 41.20 percent from 41.43 percent, pointing to a minor reduction in forecast profitability.
• The Future P/E has risen slightly to 4.68x from 4.58x, suggesting a small expansion in the multiple investors may be willing to pay for expected earnings.