EDV: Elevated Gold Prices Will Support 25% Output Expansion By 2030

The analyst fair value estimate for Endeavour Mining has nudged higher to about $74.69 from roughly $74.53 as analysts factor in a wave of predominantly higher price targets across Canadian dollar and GBp benchmarks, supported by expectations for improving margins and slightly better growth against a higher long term gold price backdrop.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts remain broadly constructive on Endeavour Mining, with recent target changes reflecting a blend of stronger long term gold price assumptions and company specific growth expectations, offset by persistent geopolitical and execution risks.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight substantial upside to production, with expectations for around 25 percent gold output growth by 2030 supporting a higher intrinsic value and justifying premium multiples versus peers.
• Multiple target hikes in both Canadian dollar and GBp terms underscore rising conviction that higher long term gold price forecasts and upgraded metal price decks can sustain margin expansion and free cash flow growth.
• Several upward revisions to price targets, including large step changes, reflect improved near and long term outlooks for gold and silver, which analysts see as a tailwind for Endeavour Mining s earnings power and balance sheet strengthening.
• Overweight and Buy stances from major houses such as JPMorgan signal confidence that the current share price underestimates the company s leverage to elevated gold prices and its project pipeline execution.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts emphasize that Endeavour Mining carries some of the highest geopolitical risk among European listed miners, with all operations concentrated in West Africa, which could warrant a structural valuation discount.
• The recent modest trim to a key GBp price target indicates that, despite a positive long term backdrop, near term volatility in operational performance or regional risk may limit multiple expansion.
• Rising operating and incentive costs tied to higher reserve and resource pricing introduce uncertainty around how much of the stronger gold price environment will flow through to sustainable margins.
• Neutral stances from some coverage highlight concerns that much of the expected growth and commodity price upside may already be reflected in the shares, leaving less room for error on project execution and cost control.

What's in the News

• Reaffirmed 2025 guidance to deliver in the top half of its 1,110 to 1,260 koz production range, maintaining all in sustaining cost guidance of $1,150 to $1,350 per ounce, with higher realized gold prices raising royalty related AISC by about $103 per ounce year to date 2025 (company guidance).
• Reported third quarter 2025 gold production of 264 koz, slightly below 270 koz a year earlier. Nine month 2025 output increased to 911 koz from 741 koz, underscoring strong year to date growth despite quarterly volatility (operating results).
• Advanced its capital return program by repurchasing 459,000 shares for $16.7 million between July 1 and November 12, 2025. This completed a total of 1,459,000 shares bought back for $44.9 million under the March 20, 2025 share buyback authorization (buyback tranche update).

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to about $74.69 from roughly $74.53, reflecting a modest uplift in intrinsic value assumptions.
• The Discount Rate has increased marginally to approximately 8.28 percent from about 8.17 percent, implying a slightly higher required return and risk premium.
• The Revenue Growth outlook has improved modestly, with the long term decline easing to around negative 5.6 percent from roughly negative 6.3 percent.
• The Net Profit Margin expectation has risen slightly to about 16.9 percent from roughly 16.1 percent, indicating a small uptick in forecast profitability.
• The future P/E multiple has edged lower to around 28.7x from about 30.1x, suggesting a modestly less expensive valuation on forward earnings.