CG: Investment Projects And Share Buybacks Will Balance Risks In The Year Ahead

Analysts have modestly increased their price target for Centerra Gold, raising it to C$16.75 from C$16.50. They cite steady revenue growth and the company’s ongoing investment phase as key factors in their assessment.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst assessments of Centerra Gold reflect a blend of optimism regarding the company's prospects and caution about near-term challenges. The latest research points to both supportive and skeptical perspectives about the company’s valuation, execution, and growth trajectory.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts have highlighted steady revenue growth as a positive factor that supports recent price target increases.
• The company's strategic investments in key projects are seen as setting the stage for long-term value creation and potential upside for the stock.
• Mount Milligan, one of Centerra’s cornerstone assets, is considered fundamental to the company’s growth strategy and financial stability.
• Recent price target revisions reflect confidence in management’s execution and the ongoing investment phase to drive future expansion.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts are cautious about the company’s ability to deliver near-term production and free cash flow growth, noting that investors may favor peers with clearer short-term catalysts.
• Ongoing struggles for Mount Milligan to meet operational guidance and declining production from Oksut contribute to a tempered outlook.
• The simultaneous execution of several major projects introduces increased operational risk and may limit upside in the short term.
• Despite underlying value, some analysts warn that uncertainty around execution could continue to weigh on the stock’s valuation.

What's in the News

• Centerra Gold's Board of Directors authorized a share buyback plan on November 5, 2025. (Buyback Transaction Announcements)
• The company announced a normal course issuer bid to repurchase up to 20,129,230 shares, or 9.98% of its issued share capital, with cancellations planned through November 9, 2026. (Buyback Transaction Announcements)
• Between July and October 2025, Centerra repurchased 2,839,983 shares for $22.1 million. This completed the repurchase of over 9 million shares under a buyback initially announced in October 2024. (Buyback Tranche Update)
• Third quarter 2025 operating results show a decline in gold and copper production compared to the previous year, with gold at 81,773 ounces and copper at 13,354,000 pounds for the quarter. (Announcement of Operating Results)
• Kestrel Gold provided an update on Centerra's exploration progress at the QCM property, highlighting assay results and drilling activities that are targeting new mineralized zones. (Product-Related Announcements)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has increased slightly, rising from CA$18.48 to CA$18.53 per share.
• Discount Rate has risen marginally, moving from 7.05% to 7.09%.
• Revenue Growth Projection has edged higher, from 10.51% to 10.74% year-over-year.
• Net Profit Margin Estimate has declined slightly, decreasing from 18.08% to 17.95%.
• Future P/E Ratio has increased modestly, going from 9.02x to 9.26x.