Update shared on 14 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 15%Analysts have raised their price target on B2Gold to approximately 6.19 dollars from about 5.39 dollars, citing expectations for stronger revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a lower future price to earnings multiple.
What's in the News
- B2Gold reported a sharp increase in consolidated gold production, with third quarter 2025 output, including pre commercial production from the Goose Mine, rising to 254,369 ounces from 180,553 ounces a year earlier, and nine month production climbing to 676,575 ounces from 599,133 ounces (Operating Results).
- The Goose Mine in Nunavut, Canada achieved commercial production on October 2, 2025, after sustaining average mill throughput above 65% of design capacity. The mill is now expected to operate near its 4,000 tonnes per day design rate in the fourth quarter of 2025 (Operating Results).
- B2Gold reiterated its 2025 production guidance for the Fekola Complex in Mali at 515,000 to 550,000 ounces, confirming that operations are running at full capacity and that all permits and licenses remain in good standing despite recent industry wide permit revocations in the country (Product Related Announcement).
- The company reconfirmed broader 2025 total annual gold production guidance of between 970,000 and 1,075,000 ounces, underscoring management confidence in meeting near term output targets (Corporate Guidance).
- B2Gold reaffirmed multi year guidance for the Goose Mine, projecting 80,000 to 110,000 ounces of gold in 2025, about 250,000 ounces in 2026, and about 330,000 ounces in 2027, with average annual production of roughly 300,000 ounces from 2026 to 2031 based on existing reserves (Corporate Guidance).
Valuation Changes
- The fair value estimate has risen moderately, increasing from CA$5.39 to CA$6.19 per share and reflecting higher expected cash flows.
- The discount rate has increased slightly, moving from 6.67% to 7.36% and implying a modestly higher perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
- Revenue growth has been revised up meaningfully, from 15.81% to 20.58%, indicating stronger expectations for top line expansion.
- Net profit margin has improved significantly, rising from 34.63% to 46.97% and pointing to greater operating efficiency and cost discipline.
- The future P/E multiple has fallen notably, declining from 5.48x to 3.75x and suggesting that the updated valuation assumes more earnings power for each unit of price.
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