Update shared on 04 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 13%Analysts have increased their price target for Aris Mining from approximately 23.54 dollars to 26.59 dollars, reflecting expectations for stronger long term valuation, supported by a slightly higher implied future earnings multiple despite modest tweaks to discount rate, revenue growth, and margin assumptions.
What's in the News
- Preliminary economic assessment confirms the 100% owned Toroparu Project in Guyana as a large scale, long life open pit gold operation with a 21.3 year mine life, average annual gold production of 235 koz, and an after tax NPV5% of $1.8 billion at $3,000/oz gold (company PEA announcement).
- Open pit designs for Toroparu are based on a conservative $1,950/oz gold price and 0.45 g/t Au cut off grade, with OEM lease financing planned for the mining fleet to support consistent, low downtime operations over the 21.3 year life (company PEA announcement).
- Plant commissioning at Toroparu is expected to be supported by a 6.1 million tonne pre production stockpile, allowing the mill to reach its 7.0 Mtpa nameplate capacity within the first operating year and underpinning early cash flow (company PEA announcement).
- At the Segovia Operations, ramp up following the commissioning of a second mill has lifted installed processing capacity by 50% to 3,000 tpd, with throughput reaching about 3,000 tpd on several August days and year to date Segovia gold production of 141,893 ounces to August 31, 2025 (company operational update).
- Including contributions from Marmato Narrow Vein, consolidated year to date production to August 31, 2025, stands at 161,168 ounces, and Aris Mining reiterates it remains on track to achieve 2025 production guidance of 230,000 to 275,000 ounces (company guidance update).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Increased from CA$23.54 to CA$26.59, indicating a moderate uplift in the estimated long term equity value.
- Discount Rate: Edged up slightly from 7.50 percent to 7.50 percent (rounded), implying a marginally higher required return embedded in the model.
- Revenue Growth: Eased slightly from 36.21 percent to 36.17 percent, reflecting a modestly more conservative top line outlook.
- Net Profit Margin: Declined slightly from 61.52 percent to 60.53 percent, pointing to a small reduction in expected long run profitability.
- Future P/E: Increased from 4.31x to 4.99x, indicating a somewhat higher multiple being applied to forward earnings in the valuation framework.
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