Update shared on 19 Dec 2025
Fair value Increased 0.71%Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Alamos Gold to approximately 64.44 dollars from about 63.99 dollars, citing expectations for faster revenue growth, improved profit margins, and a slightly lower future price to earnings multiple.
What's in the News
- Updated 2025 guidance now calls for full year gold production of 560,000 to 580,000 ounces, narrowed from the prior 580,000 to 630,000 ounce range. This signals a more conservative outlook despite growth expectations in the near term (Corporate Guidance).
- Fourth quarter 2025 production is projected to be the strongest of the year at 157,000 to 177,000 ounces, an 18% increase at the midpoint driven by improved performance across all three operations (Corporate Guidance).
- Third quarter 2025 gold production came in at 141,700 ounces, down from 152,000 ounces a year earlier. Nine month output also declined to 403,900 ounces from 426,800 ounces, highlighting recent volume pressure (Operating Results).
- Alamos Gold was added to the FTSE All World Index, potentially broadening its investor base through increased index fund and ETF ownership (Index Constituent Adds).
- The company completed repurchases of 398,200 shares for 10 million dollars under its buyback program announced in December 2024. No shares were repurchased in the July to September 2025 tranche (Buyback Tranche Update).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate increased slightly to approximately CA$64.44 from about CA$63.99, reflecting modestly higher long term expectations.
- Discount Rate edged down marginally to about 7.17 percent from roughly 7.18 percent, implying a slightly lower perceived risk profile.
- Revenue Growth rose moderately to around 26.6 percent from about 24.5 percent, indicating stronger anticipated top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin improved modestly to roughly 42.8 percent from about 40.9 percent, suggesting better expected operating efficiency and profitability.
- Future P/E declined meaningfully to approximately 17.3 times from about 18.7 times, indicating a lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.
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