Update shared on 21 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.36%Narrative Update: Alamos Gold Analyst Price Target Adjusted
Analysts have raised their price target for Alamos Gold by C$1 to C$51. This change reflects continued strong performance, expectations for improved profit margins, and modestly higher revenue growth.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish analysts have responded positively to Alamos Gold's recent performance, highlighting several factors that support the company’s upwardly revised price target and positive outlook. However, some caution remains around potential execution risks and industry challenges.
Bullish Takeaways
- Consistent execution on operational targets continues to strengthen Alamos Gold’s reputation in the sector. This has led to increased confidence in future results.
- Improvement in profit margins is expected to drive higher earnings and supports a premium valuation for the company relative to peers.
- Projected revenue growth offers visibility into sustainable top-line expansion over the medium term.
- Maintaining an Outperform rating reflects ongoing optimism toward management's ability to deliver on strategic priorities.
Bearish Takeaways
- There is some caution around cost inflation and its potential impact on profitability if industry conditions change unexpectedly.
- Analysts note that increased expectations are now reflected in the valuation. This could possibly limit near-term upside if execution falters.
- Operational risks remain, including challenges tied to ramping up production or unforeseen regulatory developments impacting margins.
What's in the News
- Alamos Gold issued updated production guidance for 2025, now expecting gold production between 560,000 and 580,000 ounces for the year, which is down from a previous range of 580,000 to 630,000 ounces. Fourth quarter 2025 production is projected to be the strongest of the year, rising 18% quarter-over-quarter with guidance of 157,000 to 177,000 ounces. (Key Developments)
- The company reported third quarter 2025 gold production of 141,700 ounces, which is down from 152,000 ounces in the same period last year. Production for the first nine months totaled 403,900 ounces, compared to 426,800 ounces for the same period in 2024. (Key Developments)
- Alamos Gold was added to the FTSE All-World Index (USD), expanding its visibility and representation among global investors. (Key Developments)
- Update on share buyback: From July to September 2025, Alamos Gold repurchased no shares. The company has completed the repurchase of 398,200 shares for $10 million under its current buyback program. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly to CA$64.54 from CA$65.43, reflecting updated assumptions in the valuation model.
- Discount Rate has risen modestly to 7.08% from 6.94%, indicating a slightly higher perceived risk or cost of capital for Alamos Gold.
- Revenue Growth projections have increased marginally, now at 25.93% compared to the previous estimate of 25.89%.
- Net Profit Margin has improved to 42.07% from 41.94%, suggesting marginally better profitability expectations.
- Future P/E Ratio has declined to 17.50x from 17.77x, reflecting subtle adjustments in future earnings expectations or valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
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