TRP: Medium-Term Execution Will Shape Outlook Amid Project Redeployment Plans

Analysts have raised their price target for TC Energy from C$75.48 to C$76.68. They cite stronger expected profit margins and renewed confidence in the company’s medium-term outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research across major brokerages has yielded a range of views on TC Energy, with both bullish and bearish analysts weighing in on the company's prospects, execution, and valuation in light of its latest earnings report and updated guidance.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight TC Energy's confirmation of its fiscal year 2025 guidance, and cite confidence in management's ability to deliver on its medium-term projections.
• Some raised their price targets and outlook, noting the extension of the company's three-year financial outlook through 2028 as a sign of long-term growth opportunities and robust project execution.
• Improved earnings reports and upward revisions to price targets reflect the view that the company is well positioned to capitalize on a robust set of opportunities through the end of the decade.
• The consistent increase in target prices from various institutions suggests optimism about potential upside to TC Energy's medium-term targets, fueled by strong fundamentals and management's track record.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts remain cautious about valuation, with some choosing to downgrade the stock on concerns that much of the positive outlook is already reflected in the current share price.
• There are lingering concerns over whether TC Energy can sustain its pace of project execution, which could impact the realization of its medium-term targets.
• A focus on execution risks and a possible slowdown in growth opportunities beyond the stated outlook keeps some firms on the sidelines, maintaining more neutral or hold ratings.
• Certain analysts have recently taken a more conservative stance, reflecting a view that near-term performance may not fully align with the optimism embedded in upward price target revisions.

What's in the News

• TC Energy intends to redeem all issued and outstanding Series 11 Cumulative Redeemable First Preferred Shares on November 28, 2025, at $25.00 per share. (Key Developments)
• The redemption supports reducing indebtedness and provides flexibility for general corporate purposes. (Key Developments)
• After the redemption, Series 11 Shares will stop receiving dividends and will be delisted from the Toronto Stock Exchange. (Key Developments)
• TC Energy notified the sole registered holder of Series 11 Shares on October 9, 2025, about the redemption process. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from CA$75.48 to CA$76.68, suggesting a modest increase in perceived fair value.
• Discount Rate has fallen from 6.94% to 6.53%, reflecting lower perceived risk or improved stability in future cash flows.
• Revenue Growth projection has decreased modestly from 6.16% to 5.69%, indicating a tempered outlook for top-line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin has improved from 23.93% to 25.30%, indicating expectations for stronger operational efficiency and profitability.
• Future P/E ratio has declined from 22.54x to 21.19x. This change may represent a combination of higher earnings forecasts and a slight moderation in valuation multiples.