Update shared on 30 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.26%Tourmaline Oil's analyst price target has been modestly reduced, with updated forecasts now reflecting a decrease of approximately C$2 to C$3 per share as analysts adjust for revised 2025 guidance and evolving market conditions.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst updates on Tourmaline Oil reflect a range of perspectives on the company’s outlook, valuation, and growth drivers as market conditions and guidance for 2025 and beyond continue to evolve.
Bullish Takeaways- Some bullish analysts see differentiated exposure for Tourmaline Oil as the company is positioned to benefit from a positive shift in North American natural gas fundamentals, especially with increases in LNG export capacity anticipated in the near term.
- The company’s ability to support significant production growth through to 2031 is highlighted, with plans to ramp production notably over the next several years. This gives confidence in its long-term growth prospects.
- Depth of inventory and planned facility expansions are viewed as factors that could sustain a compound annual growth rate of around 5% through the end of the decade.
- Initiation of coverage with Buy and Overweight ratings from key institutions suggests ongoing institutional confidence in management execution and underlying asset quality.
- Bearish analysts have modestly lowered price targets for Tourmaline Oil, reflecting concerns about lower projected valuations based on updated 2025 guidance and wider market headwinds.
- Recent downgrades to Hold ratings indicate caution about near-term execution and potential volatility in the commodity price environment.
- A preference for gas-focused investments over oil stocks, as observed by some, points to the possibility that Tourmaline’s oil exposure could be a limiting factor as macro themes shift.
- Slower upward earnings revisions and tempered outlooks for the Canadian energy sector as a whole may act as a drag on share performance relative to peers.
What's in the News
- Tourmaline Oil reported a 15% year-over-year increase in natural gas production and a 14% rise in oil equivalent production in the third quarter of 2025 (Key Developments).
- The company provided fourth quarter 2025 production guidance of 655,000 to 665,000 boepd. It also reiterated 2026 average production guidance of 690,000 to 710,000 boepd. The long-term growth plan targets 850,000 boepd by 2031 (Key Developments).
- A special dividend of $0.25 per share was declared, payable on November 25, 2025 to shareholders on record as of November 14, 2025 (Key Developments).
- No shares were repurchased under the company’s buyback programs for the reporting periods ending August and September 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Decreased slightly from CA$72.90 to CA$72.71 per share.
- Discount Rate: Remained largely unchanged, moving slightly from 6.12% to 6.12%.
- Revenue Growth: Lowered from 31.46% to 30.26% year-over-year.
- Net Profit Margin: Increased from 25.20% to 26.41%.
- Future P/E: Declined from 15.19x to 14.51x, reflecting a modest decrease in projected valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
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