MATR Q4 Outlook Will Emphasize Earnings Timing And Buyback Support

Mattr's analyst price target has been revised down from C$11.00 to C$8.00 as analysts moderate their revenue growth and margin expectations, even as recent target resets reflect a more balanced, Hold to Outperform stance on the stock.

Analyst Commentary

Bearish analysts have grown more guarded on Mattr, trimming price targets and tempering expectations for near term earnings traction. The move from double digit targets toward the mid single digit range underscores rising skepticism around the pace and durability of the companys growth trajectory.

Recent revisions highlight concerns that macro headwinds and a thinner pipeline of near term catalysts could limit upside, even as the shares have already corrected from prior highs. The evolving stance points to a market that is increasingly demanding clearer evidence of sustained margin expansion and improved execution before re rating the stock.

Bearish Takeaways

• The reset from low teens price targets down toward roughly C$8 to C$9 reflects a view that prior valuation multiples were too generous relative to the companys demonstrated earnings power.
• Bearish analysts are signaling that an earnings inflection is likely more than a year away, heightening near term execution risk and reducing visibility on when revenue growth and margins can re accelerate.
• The lack of identifiable catalysts over the next several quarters is seen as a constraint on multiple expansion, with sentiment shifting toward a Hold posture until the growth narrative becomes more tangible.
• Overall, the pattern of cuts to price targets and ratings suggests increasing concern that macro uncertainty and operational challenges could cap upside and introduce downside risk if expectations are not reset appropriately.

What's in the News

• Completed a share repurchase of 517,176 shares, or about 0.84% of outstanding shares, for approximately CAD 5.24 million under the June 26, 2025 normal course issuer bid (Key Developments).
• Between July 1 and September 30, 2025, bought back 400,000 shares, representing roughly 0.65% of shares outstanding, for CAD 5 million as part of the same buyback program (Key Developments).
• Issued new guidance indicating that fourth quarter 2025 revenue from continuing operations is expected to come in below third quarter 2025 levels, signaling a softer near term outlook (Corporate Guidance, Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Reduced significantly from CA$11.00 to CA$8.00, implying a notable reset in intrinsic value expectations.
• Discount Rate: Lowered slightly from 8.22% to approximately 8.11%, suggesting only a minor change in perceived risk or required return.
• Revenue Growth: Cut materially from about 10.45% to approximately 5.51%, reflecting a more subdued outlook for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Reduced from roughly 8.20% to about 6.13%, indicating lower anticipated profitability on future revenues.
• Future P/E: Increased from 5.75x to about 6.87x, pointing to a modestly higher valuation multiple on lower earnings expectations.