KEY: Improved Asset Uptime Will Support Stronger Earnings And Share Price Upside

Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Keyera, with fair value estimates increasing from about C$50.71 to C$51.43. They cite expectations for sequential Q3 earnings improvement driven by higher base asset uptime and steady growth across the core business.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts view the higher price target as reflecting improving earnings visibility, with sequential Q3 gains supported by better uptime on core infrastructure.
• Steady growth across the base business is seen as reinforcing the company’s ability to deliver predictable cash flows, which supports a higher valuation multiple.
• Operational reliability on base assets is interpreted as a sign of disciplined execution, which reduces perceived risk around future growth projects.
• Incremental upside to consensus estimates is expected if management sustains improved asset performance and capitalizes on demand growth across its network.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts caution that the rating remaining neutral suggests limited near term rerating potential, even with the higher price target.
• Expectations for Q3 improvement are already embedded in forecasts, which leaves less room for positive surprise to drive further valuation expansion.
• Reliance on base asset uptime to support earnings momentum highlights execution risk if operational performance were to normalize or deteriorate.
• Steady, rather than accelerated, base business growth may constrain upside compared with higher growth peers, especially if macro conditions weaken.

What's in the News

• Keyera closed a previously announced financing transaction on September 29, 2025, which strengthened its balance sheet and liquidity position (Key Developments).
• The company was added to the FTSE All-World Index in USD terms. This inclusion may broaden its global investor base and support trading liquidity (Key Developments).
• Keyera announced plans to issue multiple series of senior unsecured notes and fixed to fixed rate subordinated notes totaling CAD 2.8 billion. The notes will have maturities extending out to 2055 and are intended to fund growth initiatives and refinance existing obligations, with closing targeted for September 29, 2025 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: risen slightly from approximately CA$50.71 to CA$51.43. This reflects a modest upward adjustment in intrinsic value estimates.
• Discount Rate: fallen slightly from about 6.44% to 6.37%. This implies a marginal reduction in perceived risk or required return.
• Revenue Growth: risen significantly from roughly 8.16% to 13.29%. This indicates a more optimistic outlook for top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: fallen modestly from around 9.03% to 8.34%. This suggests slightly lower expected profitability on future revenues.
• Future P/E: fallen marginally from about 16.86x to 16.48x. This points to a small contraction in the forward valuation multiple despite the higher fair value.