Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 0.24%Canadian Natural Resources saw its fair value estimate rise modestly by approximately C$0.13. Analysts cite improved revenue growth expectations and ongoing sector resilience amid recent price target updates from several firms.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst actions highlight a dynamic set of expectations for Canadian Natural Resources, reflecting both opportunities and risks in the energy sector. Analysts have adjusted their outlooks, updating price targets in response to market trends, commodity prices, and company-specific performance.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have raised price targets, signaling increased confidence in the company’s ability to deliver value even amid fluctuating commodity prices.
- Expectations for continued dividend growth remain strong, positioning Canadian Natural Resources as a leader in shareholder returns across a range of commodity scenarios.
- Resilient share valuations have persisted, with energy equities outperforming broader commodity trends and reflecting ongoing sector strength.
- Return of capital remains a key performance driver. The company is expected to benefit from its consistent focus on rewarding shareholders.
- Some analysts note that demand indicators are currently soft, raising concerns about future revenue growth if global macroeconomic conditions do not improve.
- The outlook for natural gas remains cautious. Recent revisions point to ongoing challenges in that segment despite oil price stability.
- There is a prevailing sense of bearishness across much of the energy sector. Skepticism exists about sustained outperformance and the risk of valuation pullback if market conditions shift.
- Uncertainty surrounding commodity markets could limit upside potential, especially if supply and demand trends do not balance as forecasted.
What's in the News
- Wells Fargo initiated coverage of Canadian Natural Resources with an Equal Weight rating and a C$47 price target. The firm highlighted sector-wide bearish sentiment, but emphasized the company's strong potential for dividend growth and leadership in returning capital (Wells Fargo Periodical).
- Canadian Natural Resources reported a notable increase in production for the third quarter of 2025, with natural gas averaging 2,668 MMcf/d and crude oil and NGLs at 1,175,604 bbl/d. These figures are up significantly over the prior year (Operating Results).
- The company completed a buyback tranche, repurchasing 18,320,000 shares for CAD 790 million under its previously announced program (Buyback Tranche Update).
- Recent corporate guidance updates indicate that 2025 production is now targeted between 1,560 MBOE/d and 1,580 MBOE/d, representing approximately 15% growth over 2024 production levels (Corporate Guidance).
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to CA$52.95 from CA$52.83, reflecting modestly improved projections.
- The Discount Rate remains nearly unchanged, moving marginally lower to 6.12%.
- Revenue Growth projections have improved, with the contraction narrowing to -0.74% from a previous estimate of -1.04%.
- The Net Profit Margin is up incrementally to 23.48% from 23.35%, indicating enhanced efficiency expectations.
- The Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio has increased to 14.51x from 14.08x, suggesting a modest shift in forward valuation assumptions.
Disclaimer
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