TOY Long-Term Brand And Content Strength Will Drive Upbeat Share Repricing

Analysts have lowered their price target on Spin Master to C$27 from C$29. This reflects updated assumptions that incorporate slightly higher long term growth and margin expectations, but at a more conservative valuation multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts view the revised price target as a reflection of stronger long term fundamentals, even with a more cautious valuation framework. They highlight that the company continues to execute well against its strategic priorities, supporting confidence in sustained earnings growth.

Bullish analysts also note that near term volatility in the share price may create an attractive entry point for investors who believe in the company’s brand portfolio, content strategy, and licensing pipeline. They argue that the risk reward profile remains compelling given management’s track record and balance sheet flexibility.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see the updated price target as underpinned by higher long term growth and margin assumptions, with potential upside if execution continues to outpace current expectations.
• They point to resilient demand across core product categories and an expanding content and entertainment slate as key drivers that can support re rating potential over time.
• Improving profitability metrics and disciplined capital allocation are viewed as catalysts that could narrow the valuation gap compared with global toy and entertainment peers.
• Bullish analysts emphasize that continued delivery on innovation, licensing partnerships, and digital initiatives could lead to positive estimate revisions and renewed momentum in the stock.

What's in the News

• Recorded USD 2.1 million in impairment charges on property, plant and equipment for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, up sharply from USD 0.1 million a year earlier (Key Developments)
• Repurchased 657,240 shares for USD 10.5 million between July 1 and October 30, 2025, completing a total buyback of 1,950,589 shares for USD 33.32 million under the March 4, 2025 program (Key Developments)
• Announced an ORLY x Rubik's Cube limited-edition nail collection, with launch slated for October 20, 2026, available via ORLYBeauty.com and Amazon (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate was reduced modestly from CA$42.02 to CA$39.09 per share, reflecting a more conservative multiple despite stronger fundamentals.
• The Discount Rate edged down slightly from 6.94 percent to 6.93 percent, implying a marginally lower required return for equity investors.
• Revenue Growth increased from 2.62 percent to 3.96 percent, indicating higher expectations for long term top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin was raised from 7.90 percent to 10.68 percent, signaling improved confidence in sustained profitability and operating efficiency.
• The Future P/E Multiple was lowered significantly from 18.36x to 12.82x, suggesting a more cautious valuation framework even as growth and margin forecasts improve.