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TOY: Share Buybacks Will Support Future Upside Despite Higher Impairment Charges

Tariffs And Franchise Reliance Will Hinder Revenue Amid Digital Upside

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TOY
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 18 Jul 2025
6 viewsusers have viewed this narrative update

Update shared on 19 Jan 2026

Fair value Decreased 8.60%
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AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
-15.6%
7D
0.4%

Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Spin Master from about $23.90 to roughly $21.85. They attribute this change to updated views on discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and future P/E assumptions.

What's in the News

  • For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Spin Master reported impairment of property, plant and equipment of US$2.1 million compared with US$0.1 million a year earlier (Key Developments).
  • From July 1, 2025 to October 30, 2025, the company repurchased 657,240 shares, representing 0.65% of its shares, for US$10.5 million under its ongoing buyback program (Key Developments).
  • Under the buyback announced on March 4, 2025, Spin Master has completed the repurchase of 1,950,589 shares, representing 1.91% of its shares, for a total of US$33.32 million (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate was trimmed from about CA$23.90 to roughly CA$21.85, which is a modest step down in the appraisal of the shares.
  • The discount rate moved slightly higher from about 6.80% to around 7.01%, reflecting a higher required return in the model.
  • Revenue growth shifted upward from roughly 1.73% to about 3.05%, indicating a higher assumed growth rate for future sales.
  • The net profit margin was adjusted lower from about 8.09% to roughly 7.36%, pointing to more conservative expectations for profitability.
  • The future P/E was revised marginally higher from about 10.48x to around 10.59x, showing a small change in the multiple applied to projected earnings.

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Disclaimer

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