Analysts have modestly raised their price targets for Toronto-Dominion Bank, with consensus expectations moving higher. The bank's strategic investor day and strong capital allocation discipline support a new fair value estimate increasing from approximately $111.93 to $112.86 per share.

Analyst Commentary

Recent research notes and price target revisions indicate both optimism and caution among analysts following Toronto-Dominion Bank’s investor day and most recent quarterly performance. Several analysts have raised their price targets in response to an improved outlook and capital discipline, while others remain more conservative, citing areas of ongoing uncertainty.

• Some analysts have raised their price targets, reflecting increased confidence in TD Bank’s capital allocation and ongoing efforts to enhance shareholder returns.
• There is an expectation for medium-term earnings per share (EPS) growth in the 7% to 10% range, supported by share buybacks and stronger U.S. retail earnings.
• Efforts to deepen client relationships, simplify bank operations, and maintain cost discipline are viewed as key drivers for future growth and sustained return on equity (ROE) targets.
• Solid progress in improving the U.S. segment’s profitability is seen as a sign of additional upside potential, despite some peers having delivered stronger recent quarters.

• Other analysts remain cautious, maintaining Underweight or Sector Perform ratings, and highlight lingering concerns over net interest expenses and cost structures into fiscal 2026.
• There is some skepticism regarding the bank’s ability to consistently outperform consensus estimates, particularly if Canadian economic headwinds persist.
• Uncertainties surrounding tariffs, mortgage renewals, and the broader Canadian banking outlook may limit near-term valuation upside.
• Some analysts believe recent earnings improvements are partially driven by one-time items, such as lower-than-modeled credit losses, rather than sustainable growth trends.

What's in the News

• TD is participating in a consortium of major banks exploring the issuance of stablecoins pegged to G7 currencies (Reuters).
• TD Bank announced membership in MIT's Media Lab as a founding collaborator for the sAIpien program, aiming to advance responsible and inclusive AI in financial services (Client Announcement).
• The bank launched a new Wealth Virtual Assistant, powered by GenAI, to enhance operational effectiveness and support for clients (Product-Related Announcement).
• TD is actively seeking selective M&A opportunities and expects enhanced capital accretion starting in 2027, according to recent executive commentary (Investor Day).
• Ongoing share buybacks have resulted in the repurchase of 45.5 million shares, representing 2.61% of outstanding shares, under the current buyback program (Buyback Tranche Update).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly, increasing from approximately CA$111.93 to CA$112.86 per share.
• Discount Rate has edged up marginally, moving from 7.28% to 7.29%.
• Revenue Growth expectations have declined slightly, with projections dropping from -0.38% to -0.39%.
• Net Profit Margin is largely stable, with a small increase from 22.53% to 22.54%.
• Future P/E ratio has risen modestly from 15.49x to 15.62x, reflecting updated earnings projections.