Update shared on 03 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 2.09%Analysts have raised their price target for Ultrapar Participações from R$23.88 to R$24.38, citing improved profitability and a recent upgrade in outlook by the Street as supporting factors.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight the recent upgrade of Ultrapar’s rating, which reflects rising confidence in the company’s execution and market positioning.
- Strong profitability trends and margin improvements have strengthened the outlook for future earnings growth.
- The revised price target is based on anticipated operational efficiencies and favorable industry dynamics, which are expected to support long-term value creation.
- Continued disciplined capital allocation and focus on core businesses are seen as positive catalysts for further increases in valuation.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts remain cautious on the sustainability of recent profitability gains, noting the potential for cost inflation to impact margins.
- Concerns persist around execution risks tied to ongoing strategic initiatives, such as integration of new business units.
- Uncertainty in macroeconomic conditions may constrain top-line growth and present downside risks to current valuation levels.
What's in the News
- The Board of Directors will meet on September 17, 2025, to review changes to internal bylaws for the lead independent director appointment and to consider proposed amendments to the Corporate Risk Management Policy (Board Meeting).
- An Analyst/Investor Day event has been scheduled to provide updates and engage with the investor community (Analyst/Investor Day).
- Bernardo Sacic has resigned from his director position as of August 14, 2025. The Board has acknowledged his service and will leave the position temporarily vacant (Board Meeting).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value has increased slightly, moving from R$23.88 to R$24.38.
- Discount Rate has fallen marginally, from 23.26% to 23.11%.
- Revenue Growth estimate has decreased, shifting from 1.95% to 1.78%.
- Net Profit Margin has risen modestly, improving from 1.72% to 1.77%.
- Future P/E ratio has edged lower, decreasing from 17.90x to 17.76x.
Disclaimer
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