Update shared on 26 Nov 2025
Analysts have lowered Cosan's price target from $4.40 to $4.40, citing tempered expectations for growth and profitability despite minor improvements in revenue growth and profit margin projections.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst opinion on Cosan is currently divided, reflecting both cautious and optimistic perspectives as the company moves forward.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note that Cosan's revenue growth projections, although modest, highlight pockets of resilience within its core operations.
- The improvement in profit margin forecasts suggests greater efficiency and operational discipline.
- Some believe the recent strategic initiatives could provide an upside surprise if executed effectively.
- Cosan's diversified business mix is seen as a supportive factor for weathering sector-specific volatility.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts point to the limited upside in valuation, with the new price target largely reflecting tempered growth expectations.
- Concerns persist regarding the company's ability to deliver sustainable profitability improvements in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
- The downgrade in rating reflects unease over execution risks associated with strategic pivots and recent investments.
- There is skepticism about whether minor gains in margins will meaningfully offset broader pressures on earnings.
What's in the News
- Cosan issued corporate guidance for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, forecasting a decrease in consolidated net sales to BRL 30.1 to 31.1 billion and expecting a significant drop to a net loss between BRL 3.0 to 4.0 billion, compared to a net profit of BRL 320.8 million for the same period in 2024 (Key Developments).
- A Special/Extraordinary Shareholders Meeting is scheduled for October 23, 2025, with the agenda covering the execution of an Investment Agreement, a potential increase in the authorized capital limit, and other matters (Key Developments).
- Queluz Holdings Ltd. announced engagement with legal and financial advisors to review and evaluate strategic alternatives regarding its holdings in Cosan S.A. (Key Developments).
- Cosan filed a follow-on equity offering totaling BRL 10 billion, including both rights and common stock offerings at a price of BRL 5 per share (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value estimate remains unchanged at R$10.45 per share.
- Discount Rate is stable at 27.65% with no change compared to previous assessments.
- Revenue Growth projection has risen slightly from 59.25% to 60.75%.
- Net Profit Margin forecast has increased modestly from 2.28% to 2.36%.
- Future P/E ratio has decreased marginally, dropping from 9.95x to 9.60x.
Disclaimer
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