After revisiting the numbers and the new guidance, I’m temporarily lowering my fair value estimate on Proximus from €30.69 to around €8. The long-term infrastructure story remains intact, but the next 2–3 years now look more like a transition phase than a value unlock. Management has reduced the dividend path to €0.30 / €0.40 / €0.50 through 2028 while maintaining elevated fiber CapEx, ongoing restructuring, and plans to reduce roughly 1,200 jobs by 2030 to protect margins and the balance sheet.

I still view the domestic telecom business as fundamentally solid and strategically important for Belgium, but visibility on Global, future cash flow conversion, and overall execution risk is currently too limited. Until the company demonstrates that the Amplify reset can translate into sustainable free cash flow growth, a more conservative valuation is justified.

Short summary: Still watching closely and still believe in the long-term infrastructure value, but 2027–2028 are likely to be slower, lower-yield years with more uncertainty than previously expected. For now, I remain cautious until execution becomes clearer and the company defines a more coherent direction for what it wants to become.

"This is not financial advice. All views expressed are personal interpretations of publicly available information and are not predictions or recommendations."