ORG: Rising Dividend And Modest Margin Improvement Will Support Future Stability

AN

AnalystConsensusTarget

AnalystConsensusTarget

Not Invested

Based on Analyst Price Targets

Published

23 Feb 25

Updated

27 Nov 25

n/a

n/a

AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value

n/a

1Y

7.8%

7D

0.5%

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1Y

7.8%

7D

0.5%

You can edit this narrative until Nov 28 9:05 PM. Then, changes will post as Updates.

Author's Valuation

AU$12.153.2% undervalued

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

Shared on 27 Nov 25

Fair value Decreased 0.67%

ORG: Forward LNG Output And Profit Margins Will Guide Market Expectations

Analysts have slightly lowered their price target for Origin Energy, adjusting it from $12.24 to $12.15 because of modest shifts in profit margin estimates and forward earnings projections. What's in the News Origin Energy released new corporate guidance for fiscal year 2026 (Key Developments) The company expects Australia Pacific LNG production to be between 635 and 680 petajoules for the period (Key Developments) Valuation Changes Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased slightly from A$12.24 to A$12.15.

Shared on 13 Nov 25

Fair value Increased 0.89%

ORG: Future LNG Production Guidance And Evolving Margins Will Shape Outlook

Analysts have raised their fair value estimate for Origin Energy from $12.13 to $12.24. They cite improvements in projected revenue growth, despite a slightly lower profit margin outlook and a modestly higher discount rate.

Shared on 30 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 0.15%

Analysts have slightly increased their price target for Origin Energy to $12.13 per share, citing modest improvements in expected profit margins and revenue growth forecasts. What's in the News Origin Energy Limited has issued production guidance for fiscal year 2026, expecting Australia Pacific LNG production in the range of 635 to 680 petajoules (Key Developments).

Shared on 16 Oct 25

Fair value Increased 1.69%

Origin Energy's analyst price target has been raised modestly from $11.91 to $12.11, as analysts highlight slightly improved revenue outlooks even though softer profit margins are expected ahead. What's in the News The Board of Origin Energy Limited has declared a fully franked final dividend of 30 cents per share.

Shared on 16 Aug 25

Fair value Increased 7.06%

Despite a decline in consensus revenue growth forecasts and a higher future P/E ratio, analysts have raised Origin Energy’s fair value estimate from A$11.12 to A$11.91 per share. Valuation Changes Summary of Valuation Changes for Origin Energy The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from A$11.12 to A$11.91.

Shared on 01 May 25

Fair value Increased 5.74%

Shared on 23 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 17 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.47%

AnalystConsensusTarget has increased revenue growth from -0.7% to -0.8%.

Shared on 09 Apr 25

Fair value Decreased 0.19%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 02 Apr 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 26 Mar 25

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 19 Mar 25

Fair value Decreased 2.71%

AnalystConsensusTarget made no meaningful changes to valuation assumptions.

Shared on 12 Mar 25

Fair value Increased 2.88%

AnalystConsensusTarget Fair Value

AU$12.15

3.2% undervalued

Future estimation in

% p.a.

0

Decrease

Increase

Current revenue growth rate

0.59%

Electric Utilities revenue growth rate

0.17%

Risk Level (Discount Rate)

Our default considers factors like the company's size, volatility, profitablity and country of operation.

%

0

Decrease

Increase

Current discount rate

6.67%

Calculation

AU$1.15b

Earnings '28

x

21.94x

PE Ratio '28

=

AU$25.33b

Market Cap '28

AU$25.33b

Market Cap '28

/

1.72b

No. shares '28

=

AU$14.75

Share Price '28

AU$14.75 Share Price '28

Discounted to 2025 @ 6.67% p.a.

=

AU$12.15

Fair Value '25