Update shared on 12 May 2026
Fair value Decreased 28%Increased medium term inflation, alongside global supply chain challenges and geopolitical uncertainty will constrain the margins of consumer retail businesses. Kogan would be wise to double down on its current approach of targeting higher margin opportunities, even if that leads to reduced market share and slower revenue growth.
While other retailers are struggling to return any kind of profit on their inflated revenues, Kogan will be sitting comfortably earning a respectable 8% profit margin from their leaner digital and recurring revenue focused business, enabling them to sustainably invest more into the online customer experience, reinforcing growth into the future.
Kogan must be careful that its higher margin offerings don't fall out of favour with customers by keeping up with current trends and remaining forward looking to understand what will keep customers coming back. It must do this while remaining disciplined on costs and truly operate efficiently. Otherwise bigger competitors, such as Amazon or Chinese retailers will crush them on scale and marketing, with local brick and mortar competitors beating them on in person sales experiences. If Kogan can do all this while weathering medium term uncertainly a $9-$10 stock price should be easily achievable.
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