Despite disappointing near-term updates, a weaker FY26 outlook, and increased risks at the KCGM project, analysts have modestly raised Northern Star Resources’ fair value, increasing the consensus price target from A$19.96 to A$20.29.
Analyst Commentary
- FY26 outlook was worse than anticipated, prompting a re-evaluation of future earnings potential.
- Disappointing pre-quarterly update led to concerns over near-term performance.
- Risks identified to the downside for the KCGM project’s medium-term outlook.
- The upcoming KCGM site visit may provide further negative revisions or guidance.
- Project execution and operational risks have increased visibility in the analyst's base case.
What's in the News
- Announced ordinary dividend of AUD 0.30 per share for six months ended June 30, 2025.
- Reiterated gold sales guidance for FY26 at 1.7–1.85 million ounces, with September quarter production near 400,000 ounces and planned mill shutdowns across all three production centers.
- FY27 gold sales guidance set at 1.5–1.7 million ounces, with all-in sustaining costs forecast at AUD 2,300–2,700 per ounce and expected cost improvements throughout the year.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Northern Star Resources
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from A$19.96 to A$20.29.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Northern Star Resources has risen from 12.7% per annum to 13.5% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Northern Star Resources remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 20.68x to 21.08x.
Disclaimer
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