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Lynas Rare Earths Will Continue to Surge Alongside The Transition To a Green Future

Published
13 Mar 26
Views
404
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EllysiaL's Fair Value
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1Y
140.1%
7D
-4.1%

Author's Valuation

AU$33.3540.9% undervalued intrinsic discount

EllysiaL's Fair Value

Lynas Rare Earths is the only fully integrated rare earth producer outside of China, with demand underpinned by its critical role in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and defence technologies. The company has recently strengthened its strategic positioning through a partnership with U.S.-based Noveon Magnetics, the only American manufacturer of sintered rare earth magnets. This collaboration aims to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains, enhance supply diversification, and secure participation across the full magnet value chain.

Lynas is currently in a growth phase, with earnings fluctuating year-on-year due to price volatility and one-off project impacts. Accordingly, recurring EPS provides a clearer reflection of underlying operational performance by excluding non-core distortions. Despite earnings volatility, strong recurring EPS momentum continues, capturing upside from accelerating global decarbonisation trends.

Lynas trades at significantly higher valuation multiples: EV/EBITDA of 5.28x and P/E of 74.33x relative to diversified mining peers such as BHP and Rio Tinto, reflecting investor expectations of sustained long-term growth within the critical minerals sector. The Noveon partnership further positions Lynas to capture structural growth in global magnet and rare earth demand while mitigating geopolitical risks and improving profitability beyond Chinese market cyclicality.

From a technical perspective, LYC has exhibited a strong bullish trend since July, breaking above previous resistance near $10.50 and forming a new ascending channel. The stock continues to post higher highs and higher lows, supported by strong buying volume and a robust support level around $13.50. Price action remains well above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating strong continuation momentum.

Given its strategic positioning, earnings resilience, and strong technical structure, Lynas will anchor future portfolio growth.

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Disclaimer

The user EllysiaL holds no position in ASX:LYC. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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