If the Dorado development begins production by July 2027, then revenue on the 20% stake in the project will return a total of $150-250million AAR. With this income the stock's new valuation would be around $0.25 AUD/ share, which means that stock at $0.11 AUD/share is currently 127% undervalued, assuming market conditions hold and project is completed on time.
At the moment the current market conditions are volatile with a clear deficit in oil production and a risk of market conditions deteriorating further, which means that the potential of prices remaining higher for longer is increasing.
If the prices remain over $100 USD per barrel, then the valuation of CVN's stake increases, which would then translate over into the new share price once the project commences production.
In summary at lowest CVN is at 127% undervalued providing oil is >$80 USD a barrel but at >$100 USD, CVN could be over 167% undervalued with fair value share price of $0.30 AUD share.
This is just view please dont buy this stock without doing your own research first.
Cheers,
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