Analysts have lowered their price target for Grupo Supervielle from ARS 4,900 to ARS 2,000. They cite weakening fundamentals and rising macroeconomic uncertainty as key reasons for the sharp reduction.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Despite the recent downgrade, analysts note that the bank’s updated guidance reflects proactive management. This approach may help the institution adapt swiftly to shifting market conditions.
- Grupo Supervielle remains an established player in the Argentine banking sector, providing operational resilience and the ability to weather short-term volatility.
- Some analysts believe that any stabilization in the macro environment could quickly improve credit conditions, which may support a rebound in net interest margins.
- Analysts highlight a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop, with higher uncertainty and weak electoral outcomes accelerating negative feedback loops in the banking sector.
- The potential for increased funding costs is expected to weigh on net interest margins, putting pressure on overall profitability.
- Current guidance from banks may soon become outdated as macro challenges continue to evolve rapidly. This situation limits visibility and makes forecasting difficult.
- Higher uncertainty is seen as a drag on credit demand, which could stall the bank’s growth prospects and further weigh on valuation.
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has fallen significantly, dropping from ARS 4,475.5 to ARS 2,165.5.
- The Discount Rate has risen slightly, increasing from 29.66% to 29.85%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have declined modestly, moving from 35.74% to 34.81%.
- The Net Profit Margin forecast has decreased from 20.86% to 18.45%.
- The future P/E multiple has fallen sharply, from 10.86x to 6.09x.
Disclaimer
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