Update shared on03 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 16%Banco Macro's analyst price target has been revised downward significantly from ARS 14,852.80 to ARS 12,418.80. Analysts cite rising discount rates, moderating profit margins, and increased macroeconomic uncertainty impacting the bank's outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst commentary on Banco Macro reflects a shift in sentiment, with growing caution amid changing economic conditions and sector-specific challenges. Observers have highlighted both potential positives and areas of concern regarding the bank’s near-term outlook.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts view Banco Macro’s resilient capital position as a buffer, providing flexibility to navigate ongoing uncertainty.
- The bank’s robust customer base and established market presence continue to support revenue generation, even as macro conditions fluctuate.
- Ongoing cost discipline and digital transformation initiatives could partially offset pressure from moderating margins.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts cite elevated funding costs, which are projected to compress net interest margins and challenge profitability targets.
- Macroeconomic volatility, intensified by election outcomes, is expected to dampen credit demand and weigh on loan growth in the near term.
- Increased uncertainty regarding future policy decisions could undermine earlier management guidance and necessitate further revisions to expectations.
- A negative feedback loop may persist, with market sentiment weakening fundamentals and in turn pressuring valuation multiples.
What's in the News
- Banco Macro S.A. will hold a Board Meeting on September 10, 2025, to consider approving payment of instalment No. 4 of the cash dividend to shareholders. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- The consensus analyst price target has fallen significantly from ARS 14,852.80 to ARS 12,418.80.
- The discount rate has risen slightly, moving from 29.62% to 29.85%.
- The revenue growth outlook has increased moderately, from 23.75% to 24.52%.
- The net profit margin expectation has decreased from 19.19% to 16.94%.
- The future P/E ratio forecast has declined from 18.56x to 17.32x.
Disclaimer
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