AnalystConsensusTarget updated the narrative for BMA

Banco Macro’s analyst price target was reduced significantly from ARS 14,000 to ARS 7,700 as analysts cite mounting macroeconomic uncertainties and potential pressures on bank fundamentals following a weaker than expected electoral outcome.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts evaluating Banco Macro have revised their outlook, reflecting both optimism and caution in light of recent macroeconomic headwinds and market developments. Their assessments offer insights into factors influencing the bank's potential valuation, growth prospects, and execution challenges in the current environment.

Bullish Takeaways

• Despite recent challenges, Banco Macro remains sufficiently capitalized to manage near-term volatility and maintain operational stability.
• Recent updates to the bank’s guidance indicate a proactive approach to risk and suggest focused execution on cost management and credit quality.
• Structural strengths in Banco Macro’s retail network and client base provide a foundation for long-term growth as macroeconomic conditions improve.
• Valuation levels have pulled back significantly, which could present entry points for investors with a longer-term perspective.

Bearish Takeaways

• Mounting macroeconomic uncertainty is expected to continue weighing on fundamentals and could delay a recovery in credit demand.
• There is heightened risk that elevated funding costs may compress net interest margins and affect profitability.
• Guidance provided by banks may quickly become outdated due to rapidly evolving economic and political landscapes, making near-term forecast accuracy challenging.
• The recent electoral outcome is seen as a catalyst for a negative feedback loop, where weakening sentiment could further dampen sector performance and bank valuations.

What's in the News

• The Board of Directors authorized a buyback plan on October 8, 2025. This enables share repurchases and signals confidence in the company's valuation (Key Developments).
• Banco Macro announced a share repurchase program for up to 30,000,000 shares, representing 10% of its issued share capital, at a maximum price of ARS 7,500 per share and a total value of ARS 225,000 million. The program is valid for 60 calendar days following publication in the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange Bulletin, with possible extensions (Key Developments).
• The company held a Board Meeting on September 10, 2025, to consider payment of instalment No. 4 of the cash dividend to shareholders (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value estimate remains unchanged at ARS 12,418.8, indicating no revision to the long-term intrinsic valuation.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly from 29.85% to 29.88%, reflecting a marginal increase in perceived risk or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth projection has increased marginally from 24.52% to 24.68%, signaling slightly improved expectations for future topline expansion.
• Net Profit Margin estimate has edged down from 16.94% to 16.88%, suggesting a minor reduction in anticipated profitability.
• Future P/E ratio projection is virtually unchanged, moving from 17.32x to 17.33x, implying stable valuation multiples going forward.