Nearshoring Trends And Warehouse Optimization Will Improve Future Supply Chain Resilience

Key Takeaways

• Nearshoring and warehousing capabilities could boost regional sales, decreasing transit times and enhancing supply chain resilience.
  
• Volume growth in Domestic Express and freight optimization may improve profitability through economies of scale and targeting profitable routes.
  
• Aramex faces challenges from ongoing freight volatility, rising interest expenses, tax changes, and supply chain disruptions, all potentially eroding profitability.

Catalysts

Engages in the investment of freight, express, logistics, and supply chain management businesses in the United Arab Emirates, the Middle East, North Africa, Turkey, East and South Africa, Europe, North America, North and South Asia, and Oceania.

• The implementation of nearshoring trends aligns with Aramex's strong warehousing capabilities, which could increase regional sales and improve revenue due to reduced transit times and enhanced supply chain resilience.
  
• Growth in the consolidation and local distribution through direct injection will likely improve efficiencies and bolster revenue, owing to better utilization of existing networks and infrastructure.
  
• Significant volume growth in the Domestic Express segment aided by regional market share gains could enhance overall profitability and net margins through economies of scale and optimized local fulfillment logistics.
  
• The optimization of the freight product through strategic focus on high-volume trade lanes might lead to future margin stability and earnings growth as they target more profitable routes and verticals.
  
• Improved warehouse utilization rates, nearing full capacity in key markets, suggest potential for increased logistics revenue and operating leverage, enhancing gross profit margins over time.

Aramex PJSC Future Earnings and Revenue Growth

Assumptions

• Analysts are assuming Aramex PJSC's revenue will grow by 3.3% annually over the next 3 years.
• Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 2.1% today to 4.2% in 3 years time.
• Analysts expect earnings to reach AED 294.5 million (and earnings per share of AED 0.2) by about February 2028, up from AED 135.5 million today. The analysts are largely in agreement about this estimate.
• In order for the above numbers to justify the analysts price target, the company would need to trade at a PE ratio of 26.4x on those 2028 earnings, down from 30.2x today. This future PE is lower than the current PE for the AE Logistics industry at 27.8x.
• Analysts expect the number of shares outstanding to decline by 0.19% per year for the next 3 years.
• To value all of this in today's terms, we will use a discount rate of 20.35%, as per the Simply Wall St company report.

Aramex PJSC Future Earnings Per Share Growth

Risks

• Aramex's freight forwarding sector is experiencing persistent volatility, dynamic pricing, and disruptions, leading to lower margins in the industry, which can impact overall profitability.
  
• The shift from International Express to Domestic Express due to nearshoring trends, while stabilizing revenues, may result in a lower weight per shipment affecting gross profit margins.
  
• Increased interest expenses due to changes in the debt repayment schedule and high interest rates could negatively impact net earnings.
  
• An anticipated increase in the effective tax rate due to a change in profit mix and implementation of corporate income tax in new jurisdictions may reduce net margins.
  
• Supply chain disruptions due to congestion in regional ports and strikes, although minimal at the moment, could affect logistics efficiency and freight costs, impacting gross profits.

Valuation

• The analysts have a consensus price target of AED3.073 for Aramex PJSC based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of AED4.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just AED2.53.
  
• In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you'd need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be AED7.0 billion, earnings will come to AED294.5 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 26.4x, assuming you use a discount rate of 20.3%.
  
• Given the current share price of AED2.8, the analyst price target of AED3.07 is 8.9% higher. The relatively low difference between the current share price and the analyst consensus price target indicates that they believe on average, the company is fairly priced.
  
• We always encourage you to reach your own conclusions though. So sense check these analyst numbers against your own assumptions and expectations based on your understanding of the business and what you believe is probable.